Vitoria 1-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vitoria at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitoria vs Gremio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vitoria and Gremio meet at Barradao in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Vitoria's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Vitoria's home record at Barradao: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Gremio (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gremio's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Vitoria's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Gremio's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Vitoria 0W, Gremio 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Vitoria half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Gremio half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitoria 58% versus Gremio 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitoria 50% | Gremio 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.91 xG and Gremio 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 1.049 / defence 1.149 | Gremio attack 0.902 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 0.871. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Vitoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Vitoria games / 43 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitoria 58% | Draw 27% | Gremio 14%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Gremio 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Vitoria (58%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitoria at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vitoria 50% | Gremio 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Barradao • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 58% | Draw 27% | Gremio 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Vitoria 1.91 / Gremio 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 1.049 / def 1.149 | Gremio attack 0.902 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.459 / away 0.871 • Poisson stance: Vitoria (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Gremio xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitoria vs Gremio kick off?
Vitoria vs Gremio kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Barradao.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Gremio?
Vitoria 1 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Vitoria vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Barradao.
What competition is Vitoria vs Gremio part of?
Vitoria vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 58% chance of winning, Gremio a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vitoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vitoria and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Vitoria vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Gremio?
Record (2 meetings): Vitoria 0W | Draws 1 | Gremio 1W.
What form are Vitoria and Gremio in?
Vitoria (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Gremio (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vitoria's attack at 1.05x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.90x) against Vitoria's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitoria Win
58%
1.72
27%
3.67
14%
6.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Vitoria xG
Total xG
2.81
0.90
Gremio xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
6.91
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
41%
2.47
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
2%
46.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Vitoria and 0.90 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Gremio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Vitoria have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 13W 8D 17L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Gremio's form line: 12W 9D 17L from 38 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Vitoria against 1.18 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vitoria have posted 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (8W 3D 8L).
On the road, Gremio have gone 3W 7D 9L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vitoria are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.16 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitoria and Gremio in coming into this match?
Vitoria have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Gremio have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitoria at home or Gremio away?
Vitoria's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitoria at home: 1.42 PPG; Gremio away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 7 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitoria have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Vitoria
2
Draws
3
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Gremio?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitoria have won 1, Gremio have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 7 September 2026, when Vitoria 1-0 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Vitoria and Gremio?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitoria 53%, Gremio 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vitoria) and 42% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Vitoria have failed to score in 26% of games; Gremio in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitoria play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Vitoria's recent matches and 53% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitoria vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vitoria's recent games and 42% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitoria and Gremio tend to score early?
Vitoria have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Gremio in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitoria and Gremio share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Barradao, Regular Season - 6, as Vitoria and Gremio drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.91 xG and Gremio 0.90 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Vitoria fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 1.05 / defence 1.15 against Gremio attack 0.90 / defence 1.25, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 58% | Draw 27% | Gremio 14%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 50%, Gremio 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitoria's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Gremio's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitoria 1.24 PPG, Gremio 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.