Vasco DA Gama 3-1 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Sport Recife fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio São Januário plays host to Vasco DA Gama versus Sport Recife in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Vasco DA Gama (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Estádio São Januário this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at Estádio São Januário than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.40 xG and Sport Recife 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.055 / defence 1.056 | Sport Recife attack 0.740 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 0.891. Data: 40 Vasco DA Gama games / 2 Sport Recife games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 51% | Draw 33% | Sport Recife 16%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 1.96 | Draw 3.03 | Sport Recife 6.25. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasco DA Gama at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 51% | Draw 33% | Sport Recife 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.40 / Sport Recife 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.055 / def 1.056 | Sport Recife attack 0.740 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.408 / away 0.891 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Sport Recife xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Sport Recife kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Sport Recife kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Sport Recife?
Vasco DA Gama 3 - 1 Sport Recife.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Sport Recife part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 51% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 16% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Sport Recife?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Sport Recife in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Vasco DA Gama home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vasco DA Gama's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Sport Recife's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Sport Recife's attack (0.74x) against Vasco DA Gama's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
51%
1.96
33%
2.99
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.10
0.70
Sport Recife xG
1.96
51%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
4%
25.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.0 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 0.70 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Sport Recife?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Pre-Season
Sport Recife
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Vasco DA Gama
0
Draws
0
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Sport Recife?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, Sport Recife have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2025, when Sport Recife 2-3 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Sport Recife?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Vasco DA Gama cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sport Recife.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Sport Recife 3-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.40 xG and Sport Recife 0.70 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Sport Recife attack 0.74 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 51% | Draw 33% | Sport Recife 16%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.