Sport Recife 0-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sport Recife at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sport Recife face RB Bragantino.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sport Recife host RB Bragantino at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Serie A (matchday 4). Kick-off is Thursday 17 April 2025 at 00:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Across their last 10 games, RB Bragantino have recorded 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
RB Bragantino's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Sport Recife have won 0, RB Bragantino 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2021, ended Sport Recife 0–3 RB Bragantino — a RB Bragantino win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 1.30 xG and RB Bragantino 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.850 / defence 1.258 | RB Bragantino attack 1.011 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 0.933. Sport Recife's defence rating of 1.258 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing RB Bragantino's projected output up. Data: built from Sport Recife's last 3 games and RB Bragantino's last 41.
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 35% | Draw 35% | RB Bragantino 30%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 2.82 | Draw 2.88 | RB Bragantino 3.35. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 4 | Venue: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Thursday 17 April 2025 at 00:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 35% | Draw 35% | RB Bragantino 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Sport Recife 1.30 / RB Bragantino 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.850 / def 1.258 | RB Bragantino attack 1.011 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.390 / away 0.933 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
1.19
RB Bragantino xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino FAQs
What time does Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 00:00 UK time on Thursday 17 April 2025 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino?
Sport Recife 0 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino part of?
Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 4) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 35% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sport Recife and RB Bragantino will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sport Recife's attack at 0.85x the league average against RB Bragantino's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Sport Recife's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sport Recife's last 3 games and RB Bragantino's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sport Recife Win
35%
2.82
35%
2.88
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
2.49
1.19
RB Bragantino xG
2.82
35%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
8%
12.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sport Recife and 1.19 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Pre-Season
RB Bragantino
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Sport Recife (Home) vs RB Bragantino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sport Recife
Pre-Season
RB Bragantino
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 14 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Oct 2021, when RB Bragantino won RB Bragantino 3-0 Sport Recife.
Sport Recife's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
2
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and RB Bragantino?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sport Recife have won 0, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and RB Bragantino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2025: RB Bragantino 1-1 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as RB Bragantino defy the odds to beat Sport Recife 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Sport Recife 0-1 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 1.30 xG and RB Bragantino 1.19 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sport Recife fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.85 / defence 1.26 against RB Bragantino attack 1.01 / defence 1.10, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 35% | Draw 35% | RB Bragantino 30%, with Sport Recife to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual RB Bragantino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.