RB Bragantino 1-1 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 23 as RB Bragantino welcome Sport Recife to Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 September 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
RB Bragantino — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, RB Bragantino have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Sport Recife have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sport Recife away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (RB Bragantino) versus 0.70 (Sport Recife). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for RB Bragantino, 0 for Sport Recife and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with RB Bragantino winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
RB Bragantino in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Sport Recife in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 55% versus Sport Recife 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 55% | Sport Recife 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.83 xG and Sport Recife 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.087 / defence 1.288 | Sport Recife attack 0.726 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.081. Sport Recife bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing RB Bragantino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 RB Bragantino games / 20 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 56% | Draw 23% | Sport Recife 21%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Sport Recife 4.76. The model has a clear lean to RB Bragantino (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: RB Bragantino 50% | Sport Recife 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 56% | Draw 23% | Sport Recife 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG RB Bragantino 1.83 / Sport Recife 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.087 / def 1.288 | Sport Recife attack 0.726 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Sport Recife xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife?
RB Bragantino 1 - 1 Sport Recife.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife part of?
RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 56% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both RB Bragantino and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Sport Recife?
Record (3 meetings): RB Bragantino 2W | Draws 1 | Sport Recife 0W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Sport Recife in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Sport Recife (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Sport Recife's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Sport Recife's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
56%
1.77
23%
4.38
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.84
1.01
Sport Recife xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
16%
6.21
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
3%
29.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.01 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RB Bragantino come into this having played 20 games, going 9W 2D 9L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sport Recife sit at 0.50 PPG from 20 outings (1W 7D 12L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Bragantino carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Sport Recife — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
RB Bragantino's home form reads 5W 1D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Sport Recife have taken 0.50 points per game from 10 outings (1W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Sport Recife are on 0.70 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Sport Recife
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Sport Recife in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 9W 2D 9L in their last 20 games (1.45 PPG), while Sport Recife have gone 1W 7D 12L in their last 20 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Sport Recife away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.60 PPG; Sport Recife away: 0.50 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Sport Recife been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sport Recife in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Bragantino and Sport Recife runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2021, when RB Bragantino won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Sport Recife specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
0
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Sport Recife?
From 4 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Sport Recife have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when RB Bragantino 1-1 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Sport Recife?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sport Recife are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 50%, Sport Recife 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (RB Bragantino) and 50% (Sport Recife). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sport Recife in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Sport Recife?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 40% of Sport Recife's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of RB Bragantino's matches and 50% of Sport Recife's.
Do RB Bragantino and Sport Recife tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sport Recife in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Bragantino and Sport Recife share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 23, as RB Bragantino and Sport Recife drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.83 xG and Sport Recife 1.01 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. RB Bragantino fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.09 / defence 1.29 against Sport Recife attack 0.73 / defence 1.23, drawn from 60/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 56% | Draw 23% | Sport Recife 21%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 55%, Sport Recife 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sport Recife's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Bragantino arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.