RB Bragantino 1-0 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 73%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques plays host to RB Bragantino versus Juventude in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Tuesday 27 May 2025 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
RB Bragantino's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juventude (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Juventude's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for RB Bragantino, 1.20 for Juventude — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — RB Bragantino register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Juventude in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — RB Bragantino lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Juventude goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RB Bragantino 66% and Juventude 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 50% | Juventude 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 2.37 xG and Juventude 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.034 / defence 0.969 | Juventude attack 0.879 / defence 1.721. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 0.851. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.721 — this is suppressing RB Bragantino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 RB Bragantino games / 47 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 73% | Draw 18% | Juventude 9%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 1.37 | Draw 5.56 | Juventude 11.11. The model has a clear lean to RB Bragantino (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: RB Bragantino 70% | Juventude 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 May 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 73% | Draw 18% | Juventude 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 48% | xG RB Bragantino 2.37 / Juventude 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.034 / def 0.969 | Juventude attack 0.879 / def 1.721 | league avg home 1.332 / away 0.851 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Juventude xG
48%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Juventude kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Juventude kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 27 May 2025 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
RB Bragantino 1 - 0 Juventude.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Juventude part of?
RB Bragantino vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 73% chance of winning, Juventude a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both RB Bragantino and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Juventude?
Record (6 meetings): RB Bragantino 2W | Draws 2 | Juventude 2W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Juventude in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Juventude (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Juventude's defensive record (1.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.37. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.88x) against RB Bragantino's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
73%
1.37
18%
5.47
9%
11.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
3.09
0.72
Juventude xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.47
18%
Draw
11.63
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
9%
10.70
Win to Nil
35%
2.82
1%
124.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.72 for Juventude, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 10W 14D 14L from 38 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Juventude, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 15L across 38 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.18 for Juventude. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 8W 7D 4L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — RB Bragantino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Juventude's away record stands at 3W 6D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 1.26 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Juventude in 71%.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Juventude
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Juventude in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 10W 14D 14L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Juventude have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Juventude away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.63 PPG; Juventude away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
3
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Juventude?
From 8 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 3, Juventude have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2025, when Juventude 1-0 RB Bragantino.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for RB Bragantino, 79% for Juventude — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (RB Bragantino) and 58% (Juventude). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Juventude?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of RB Bragantino's games and 79% of Juventude's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Bragantino vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of RB Bragantino's matches and 58% of Juventude's.
Do RB Bragantino and Juventude tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Juventude in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Juventude 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Juventude 1-0 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 2.37 xG and Juventude 0.72 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.03 / defence 0.97 against Juventude attack 0.88 / defence 1.72, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 73% | Draw 18% | Juventude 9%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 50%, Juventude 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.16 PPG, Juventude 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.