RB Bragantino 3-0 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Flamengo (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as RB Bragantino face Flamengo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Flamengo travel to Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques to take on RB Bragantino in Serie A (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Friday 3 April 2026 at 01:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, RB Bragantino stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
RB Bragantino at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Flamengo are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Flamengo have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches against 2 for RB Bragantino.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended RB Bragantino 0–3 Flamengo — a Flamengo win.
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
RB Bragantino trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Flamengo trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 60% versus Flamengo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 54% | Flamengo 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: RB Bragantino surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Flamengo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.04 xG and Flamengo 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.854 / defence 1.122 | Flamengo attack 1.355 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.048. Flamengo have an above-average attack rating of 1.355, which lifts their away xG to 1.59. Data: built from RB Bragantino's last 46 games and Flamengo's last 45.
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 25% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 50%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 4.03 | Draw 3.98 | Flamengo 2.00. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (RB Bragantino's last 10 home games and Flamengo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: RB Bragantino 50% (last 10 home games) | Flamengo 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 9 | Venue: Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques • Kick-off: Friday 3 April 2026 at 01:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 25% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG RB Bragantino 1.04 / Flamengo 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.854 / def 1.122 | Flamengo attack 1.355 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Flamengo xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RB Bragantino vs Flamengo FAQs
What time does RB Bragantino vs Flamengo kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Flamengo kicked off at 01:30 UK time on Friday 3 April 2026 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
RB Bragantino 3 - 0 Flamengo.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Flamengo part of?
RB Bragantino vs Flamengo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 9) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 25% chance of winning, Flamengo a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both RB Bragantino and Flamengo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will RB Bragantino vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates RB Bragantino's attack at 0.85x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from RB Bragantino's last 46 games and Flamengo's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
25%
4.03
25%
3.98
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.64
1.59
Flamengo xG
4.03
25%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
5%
19.86
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RB Bragantino vs Flamengo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.59 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 24W 20D 32L from 76 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 43W 20D 13L across 76 games — 1.96 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over RB Bragantino heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 17W 11D 10L from their last 38 home games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — RB Bragantino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Flamengo's away record stands at 18W 10D 10L across their last 38 away games, a 1.68 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.83 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Flamengo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
RB Bragantino (Home) vs Flamengo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ RB Bragantino vs Flamengo Form FAQs
What form are RB Bragantino and Flamengo in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 24W 20D 32L in their last 76 games (1.21 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 43W 20D 13L in their last 76 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.63 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.68 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Flamengo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Jun 2023, when RB Bragantino won RB Bragantino 4-0 Flamengo.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
RB Bragantino
1
Draws
6
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ RB Bragantino vs Flamengo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Flamengo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, RB Bragantino have won 3, Flamengo have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Flamengo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Flamengo 2-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 58%, Flamengo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (RB Bragantino) and 53% (Flamengo).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RB Bragantino vs Flamengo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RB Bragantino and Flamengo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of RB Bragantino's games and 60% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are RB Bragantino and Flamengo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 53% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Flamengo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 66% of Flamengo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RB Bragantino run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Flamengo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Flamengo 3-0 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.04 xG and Flamengo 1.59 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. RB Bragantino beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Flamengo landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against Flamengo attack 1.35 / defence 0.80, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 25% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 50%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a RB Bragantino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 54%, Flamengo 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with RB Bragantino winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.