Palmeiras 2-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 64% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs Gremio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 9 as Palmeiras welcome Gremio to Arena Barueri. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 April 2026 at 00:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Palmeiras at Arena Barueri this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Barueri. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Arena Barueri than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gremio away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Palmeiras) versus 1.30 (Gremio). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Palmeiras hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 2 for Gremio, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2025, ended 2–3 with Gremio winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Palmeiras and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Palmeiras trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Gremio trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 43% versus Gremio 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 47% | Gremio 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.94 xG and Gremio 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.202 / defence 0.810 | Gremio attack 0.943 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.048. Data: 46 Palmeiras games / 46 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 64% | Draw 21% | Gremio 15%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Gremio 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Palmeiras 40% | Gremio 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Arena Barueri • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 64% | Draw 21% | Gremio 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 47% | xG Palmeiras 1.94 / Gremio 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.202 / def 0.810 | Gremio attack 0.943 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Gremio xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Gremio kick off?
Palmeiras vs Gremio kicked off at 00:30 on Friday 3 April 2026 at Arena Barueri.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Palmeiras 2 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Palmeiras vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Arena Barueri.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Gremio part of?
Palmeiras vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 64% chance of winning, Gremio a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Palmeiras and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Gremio?
Record (8 meetings): Palmeiras 5W | Draws 1 | Gremio 2W.
What form are Palmeiras and Gremio in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Gremio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.20x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
64%
1.56
21%
4.70
15%
6.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.74
0.80
Gremio xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
6.79
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
14%
6.92
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
2%
47.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.80 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palmeiras's recent record stands at 45W 14D 17L from 76 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Gremio, meanwhile, have gone 25W 19D 32L across 76 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gremio heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Palmeiras have managed 24W 7D 7L from 38 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gremio's away record stands at 7W 12D 19L across 38 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palmeiras are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.20 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Gremio in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 45W 14D 17L in their last 76 games (1.96 PPG), while Gremio have gone 25W 19D 32L in their last 76 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Gremio away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.08 PPG; Gremio away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Gremio in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palmeiras and Gremio runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2023, when Palmeiras won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Palmeiras
1
Draws
2
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Gremio?
From 9 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 6, Gremio have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Palmeiras 2-1 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Gremio?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palmeiras see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 37%, Gremio 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Palmeiras) and 45% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Palmeiras have failed to score in 29% of games; Gremio in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 55% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Palmeiras's recent games and 45% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Gremio tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Gremio in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Gremio 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Gremio 2-1 at Arena Barueri, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.94 xG and Gremio 0.80 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.20 / defence 0.81 against Gremio attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 64% | Draw 21% | Gremio 15%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 47%, Gremio 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Gremio's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.