RB Bragantino 0-3 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RB Bragantino and Bahia meet at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 12 June 2025 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, RB Bragantino have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bahia have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bahia have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for RB Bragantino against 0.80 for Bahia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — RB Bragantino register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bahia in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — RB Bragantino lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with RB Bragantino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
RB Bragantino — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Bahia — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 53% versus Bahia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 43% | Bahia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.24 xG and Bahia 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.938 / defence 0.898 | Bahia attack 0.902 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 0.875. Data: 49 RB Bragantino games / 49 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 48% | Draw 32% | Bahia 20%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Bahia 5.00. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 37% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: RB Bragantino 70% | Bahia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Jun 2025, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 48% | Draw 32% | Bahia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG RB Bragantino 1.24 / Bahia 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.938 / def 0.898 | Bahia attack 0.902 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.289 / away 0.875 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Bahia xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Bahia kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Bahia kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 12 June 2025 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
RB Bragantino 0 - 3 Bahia.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Bahia part of?
RB Bragantino vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 48% chance of winning, Bahia a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both RB Bragantino and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Bahia?
Record (6 meetings): RB Bragantino 2W | Draws 2 | Bahia 2W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Bahia in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Bahia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (0.94) and Bahia's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (0.90x) against RB Bragantino's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
48%
2.09
32%
3.14
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
1.95
0.71
Bahia xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
6%
17.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.5 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.71 for Bahia, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
RB Bragantino come into this having played 76 games, going 27W 25D 24L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Bahia sit at 1.28 PPG from 76 outings (27W 16D 33L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.28 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
RB Bragantino's home form reads 19W 12D 7L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — RB Bragantino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bahia have taken 0.84 points per game from 38 outings (8W 8D 22L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.30 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Bahia in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 27W 25D 24L in their last 76 games (1.39 PPG), while Bahia have gone 27W 16D 33L in their last 76 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Bahia away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.82 PPG; Bahia away: 0.84 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bahia in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Bahia have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 4-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
6
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Bahia?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Bahia have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when RB Bragantino 2-3 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Bahia?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 53%, Bahia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (RB Bragantino) and 58% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Bahia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Bahia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of RB Bragantino's games and 58% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Bragantino vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 58% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Bahia tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bahia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bahia run riot with a 0-3 hammering of RB Bragantino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat RB Bragantino 0-3 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.24 xG and Bahia 0.71 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. RB Bragantino fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bahia outscored their 0.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.94 / defence 0.90 against Bahia attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 48% | Draw 32% | Bahia 20%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Bahia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 43%, Bahia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.39 PPG, Bahia 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.