Palmeiras 1-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs Fluminense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Fluminense travel to Allianz Parque to take on Palmeiras. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 July 2021, 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 0L across 6 games at Allianz Parque this term (2.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 1L across 6 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Palmeiras are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Palmeiras trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Fluminense trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 58% versus Fluminense 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 67% | Fluminense 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.33 xG and Fluminense 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.434 / defence 1.201 | Fluminense attack 0.862 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 0.896 / away 1.128. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.434 — their λ of 1.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 12 Palmeiras games / 12 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 40% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 33%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Fluminense 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 83% | Fluminense 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 40% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Palmeiras 1.33 / Fluminense 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.434 / def 1.201 | Fluminense attack 0.862 / def 1.037 | league avg home 0.896 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Fluminense xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Fluminense kick off?
Palmeiras vs Fluminense kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Palmeiras 1 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Palmeiras vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Fluminense part of?
Palmeiras vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 40% chance of winning, Fluminense a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Palmeiras and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palmeiras and Fluminense in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Fluminense (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.43x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
40%
2.47
27%
3.72
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.50
1.17
Fluminense xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
9%
11.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Palmeiras and 1.17 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Palmeiras have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 9W 1D 2L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense's form line: 4W 5D 3L from 12 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fluminense.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palmeiras have posted 2.67 PPG from 6 outings (5W 1D 0L).
On the road, Fluminense have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 0.83 scored and 0.92 conceded. Palmeiras's scoring rate against Fluminense's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Fluminense in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 9W 1D 2L in their last 12 games (2.33 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 4W 5D 3L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Fluminense away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.67 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fluminense in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Palmeiras
3
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 3, Fluminense have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Fluminense 3-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Palmeiras at 83%, Fluminense at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Palmeiras) and 33% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Fluminense in 33%; Fluminense in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Fluminense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Palmeiras's games and 50% of Fluminense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palmeiras vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Palmeiras's recent games and 33% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Fluminense tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Fluminense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Fluminense 1-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.33 xG and Fluminense 1.17 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fluminense landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.43 / defence 1.20 against Fluminense attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 40% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 33%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 67%, Fluminense 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fluminense's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.