Palmeiras 0-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Palmeiras take on Flamengo.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Palmeiras and Flamengo meet at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Palmeiras at Allianz Parque this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Flamengo have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Palmeiras, 2 for Flamengo and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Flamengo — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 41% versus Flamengo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 45% | Flamengo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 0.96 xG and Flamengo 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 0.879 / defence 0.849 | Flamengo attack 1.219 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 0.826. Flamengo's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 0.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Palmeiras games / 47 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 35% | Draw 37% | Flamengo 29%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Flamengo 3.45. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 40% | Flamengo 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 35% | Draw 37% | Flamengo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Palmeiras 0.96 / Flamengo 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 0.879 / def 0.849 | Flamengo attack 1.219 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.372 / away 0.826 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Flamengo xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Flamengo kick off?
Palmeiras vs Flamengo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Palmeiras 0 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Palmeiras vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Flamengo part of?
Palmeiras vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 35% chance of winning, Flamengo a 29% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Palmeiras and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Flamengo?
Record (7 meetings): Palmeiras 0W | Draws 5 | Flamengo 2W.
What form are Palmeiras and Flamengo in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Palmeiras's attack rating (0.88) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.22x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.88
37%
2.74
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
1.82
0.85
Flamengo xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.74
37%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
11%
9.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 13.9 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.85 for Flamengo, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palmeiras's recent record stands at 42W 17D 17L from 76 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 39W 19D 18L across 76 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.88 PPG for Palmeiras against 1.79 for Flamengo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Palmeiras have managed 26W 4D 8L from 38 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 18W 9D 11L across 38 trips, a 1.66 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palmeiras are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.54 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 42W 17D 17L in their last 76 games (1.88 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 39W 19D 18L in their last 76 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Flamengo away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.16 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Flamengo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 3-0 on 9 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Palmeiras
5
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 1, Flamengo have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Flamengo 0-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 40%, Flamengo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Palmeiras) and 58% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 60% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Palmeiras's recent games and 58% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Flamengo tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Palmeiras.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Palmeiras 0-2 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 0.96 xG and Flamengo 0.85 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Palmeiras fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Flamengo outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 0.88 / defence 0.85 against Flamengo attack 1.22 / defence 0.80, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 35% | Draw 37% | Flamengo 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 45%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palmeiras 1.88 PPG, Flamengo 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.