Mirassol 4-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mirassol face Gremio.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia plays host to Mirassol versus Gremio in Serie A (matchday 4). Kick-off: Thursday 17 April 2025 at 00:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Gremio's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gremio's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.19 xG and Gremio 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 0.826 / defence 1.131 | Gremio attack 0.884 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 0.933. Data: built from Mirassol's last 3 games and Gremio's last 41.
Result probabilities: Mirassol 38% | Draw 37% | Gremio 25%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.65 | Draw 2.67 | Gremio 4.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, matchday 4 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Thursday 17 April 2025 at 00:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 38% | Draw 37% | Gremio 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Mirassol 1.19 / Gremio 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 0.826 / def 1.131 | Gremio attack 0.884 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.390 / away 0.933 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Gremio xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mirassol vs Gremio FAQs
What time does Mirassol vs Gremio kick off?
Mirassol vs Gremio kicked off at 00:00 UK time on Thursday 17 April 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Gremio?
Mirassol 4 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Mirassol vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Gremio part of?
Mirassol vs Gremio is a Serie A fixture (matchday 4) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 38% chance of winning, Gremio a 25% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mirassol and Gremio will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Mirassol vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mirassol's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Gremio's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.88x) against Mirassol's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Mirassol's last 3 games and Gremio's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
38%
2.65
37%
2.67
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.12
0.93
Gremio xG
2.65
38%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
15%
6.74
8%
13.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mirassol vs Gremio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Mirassol and 0.93 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Pre-Season
Gremio
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Mirassol (Home) vs Gremio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mirassol
Pre-Season
Gremio
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 17 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Mirassol have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mirassol won Mirassol 4-1 Gremio on 16 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mirassol have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Mirassol
0
Draws
0
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Mirassol vs Gremio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Gremio?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Mirassol have won 3, Gremio have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Gremio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 July 2026: Mirassol 2-1 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Gremio?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Mirassol run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Gremio 4-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.19 xG and Gremio 0.93 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Mirassol beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 0.83 / defence 1.13 against Gremio attack 0.88 / defence 1.03, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 38% | Draw 37% | Gremio 25%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.