Mirassol 1-1 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Cruzeiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 20 as Mirassol welcome Cruzeiro to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 19 August 2025 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mirassol — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol have gone 5W 3D 0L this season (8 games, 2.25 PPG). They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cruzeiro stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cruzeiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cruzeiro's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Mirassol) versus 2.00 (Cruzeiro). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Mirassol, 1 for Cruzeiro and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Cruzeiro winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Mirassol in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Cruzeiro in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 71% versus Cruzeiro 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 47% | Cruzeiro 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 0.97 xG and Cruzeiro 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.237 / defence 1.042 | Cruzeiro attack 1.026 / defence 0.622. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.130. Cruzeiro's defence strength of 0.622 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 17 Mirassol games / 57 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 30% | Draw 29% | Cruzeiro 41%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Cruzeiro 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cruzeiro at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 75% | Cruzeiro 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Aug 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 30% | Draw 29% | Cruzeiro 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Mirassol 0.97 / Cruzeiro 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.237 / def 1.042 | Cruzeiro attack 1.026 / def 0.622 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Cruzeiro xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Mirassol vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 19 August 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Cruzeiro?
Mirassol 1 - 1 Cruzeiro.
Where is Mirassol vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Cruzeiro part of?
Mirassol vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 30% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Mirassol and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Cruzeiro?
Record (1 meetings): Mirassol 0W | Draws 0 | Cruzeiro 1W.
What form are Mirassol and Cruzeiro in?
Mirassol (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Cruzeiro (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mirassol's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Cruzeiro's defensive record (0.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Cruzeiro's attack versus Mirassol's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
30%
3.38
29%
3.45
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.18
1.21
Cruzeiro xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
9%
11.31
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 13.7 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.21 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mirassol come into this having played 17 games, going 7W 7D 3L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cruzeiro sit at 2.00 PPG from 17 outings (10W 4D 3L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Cruzeiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mirassol on 1.65 PPG, Cruzeiro on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mirassol's home form reads 5W 3D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cruzeiro have taken 1.88 points per game from 8 outings (4W 3D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Mirassol are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 1.71 scored and 0.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cruzeiro in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Blended
Cruzeiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 7W 7D 3L in their last 17 games (1.65 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 10W 4D 3L in their last 17 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Cruzeiro away?
Mirassol's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.25 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Mirassol's record when hosting Cruzeiro specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mirassol
2
Draws
2
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Cruzeiro?
From 4 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 0, Cruzeiro have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Cruzeiro 3-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 75%, Cruzeiro 12% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Mirassol) and 12% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro in 75%; Cruzeiro in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Cruzeiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Mirassol's recent matches and 12% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mirassol vs Cruzeiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Mirassol's recent games and 12% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and Cruzeiro tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cruzeiro in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mirassol and Cruzeiro share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 20, as Mirassol and Cruzeiro drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 0.97 xG and Cruzeiro 1.21 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.24 / defence 1.04 against Cruzeiro attack 1.03 / defence 0.62, drawn from 17/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 30% | Draw 29% | Cruzeiro 41%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 47%, Cruzeiro 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.65 PPG, Cruzeiro 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.