Mirassol 2-2 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Atletico-MG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia plays host to Mirassol versus Atletico-MG in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Atletico-MG (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Atletico-MG have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.79 xG and Atletico-MG 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.114 / defence 1.150 | Atletico-MG attack 0.854 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 0.894. Data: 5 Mirassol games / 43 Atletico-MG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 57% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 16%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Atletico-MG 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Mirassol (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mirassol at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 57% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Mirassol 1.79 / Atletico-MG 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.114 / def 1.150 | Atletico-MG attack 0.854 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.446 / away 0.894 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Atletico-MG xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Mirassol 2 - 2 Atletico-MG.
Where is Mirassol vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Atletico-MG part of?
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 57% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mirassol and Atletico-MG will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Atletico-MG?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mirassol and Atletico-MG in?
Atletico-MG (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Atletico-MG away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mirassol's attack at 1.11x the league average against Atletico-MG's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico-MG's attack (0.85x) against Mirassol's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
57%
1.76
27%
3.64
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.67
0.88
Atletico-MG xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
3%
37.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Mirassol and 0.88 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Pre-Season
Atletico-MG
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Atletico-MG go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Mirassol
1
Draws
2
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Atletico-MG?
From 3 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 0, Atletico-MG have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Atletico-MG last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Atletico-MG 3-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Atletico-MG?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Mirassol and Atletico-MG share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol and Atletico-MG finished level at 2-2 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.79 xG and Atletico-MG 0.88 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Atletico-MG outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.11 / defence 1.15 against Atletico-MG attack 0.85 / defence 1.11, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 57% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 16%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.