Juventude 1-1 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Juventude at 53%, yet the head-to-head data favours Atletico-MG — this Juventude vs Atletico-MG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena BRB Mané Garrincha plays host to Juventude versus Atletico-MG in Serie A (matchday 17). Kick-off: Wednesday 17 July 2024 at 00:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Juventude have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Juventude at home: 5W 2D 0L from their last 7 home games — 2.43 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Juventude are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Atletico-MG's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Atletico-MG have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Juventude against 1.20 for Atletico-MG. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Atletico-MG have the stronger record — 4 wins to Juventude's 0, with 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2022, ended Juventude 0–1 Atletico-MG — a Atletico-MG win.
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Juventude — key trading statistics (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Atletico-MG — key trading statistics (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Juventude 64% and Atletico-MG 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 43% | Atletico-MG 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.77 xG and Atletico-MG 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 1.087 / defence 0.786 | Atletico-MG attack 1.197 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.082. Juventude have a tight defence (rating 0.786), which is pulling Atletico-MG's projected output down. Data: built from Juventude's last 14 games and Atletico-MG's last 53.
Result probabilities: Juventude 53% | Draw 26% | Atletico-MG 20%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 1.87 | Draw 3.78 | Atletico-MG 4.99. Juventude hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventude at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventude if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Juventude 43% (last 7 home games) | Atletico-MG 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, matchday 17 | Venue: Arena BRB Mané Garrincha • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 July 2024 at 00:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 53% | Draw 26% | Atletico-MG 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Juventude 1.77 / Atletico-MG 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 1.087 / def 0.786 | Atletico-MG attack 1.197 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Juventude (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Atletico-MG xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Juventude vs Atletico-MG FAQs
What time does Juventude vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Juventude vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 00:00 UK time on Wednesday 17 July 2024 at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Atletico-MG?
Juventude 1 - 1 Atletico-MG.
Where is Juventude vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha.
What competition is Juventude vs Atletico-MG part of?
Juventude vs Atletico-MG is a Serie A fixture (matchday 17) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 53% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Juventude and Atletico-MG will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Juventude vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Juventude's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Atletico-MG's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — Atletico-MG's attack (1.20x) against Juventude's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Juventude's last 14 games and Atletico-MG's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
53%
1.87
26%
3.78
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.79
1.02
Atletico-MG xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
3%
29.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Juventude vs Atletico-MG Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Juventude and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Juventude and 1.02 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 5W 4D 5L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Atletico-MG's form line: 5W 5D 4L from 14 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Juventude against 1.43 for Atletico-MG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Juventude have posted 2.33 PPG from their last 6 home games (4W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Atletico-MG have gone 3W 1D 2L from their last 6 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventude are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Atletico-MG are on 1.57 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Atletico-MG in 71%.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Atletico-MG
Blended
Juventude (Home) vs Atletico-MG (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Juventude
Blended
Atletico-MG
Blended
❓ Juventude vs Atletico-MG Form FAQs
What form are Juventude and Atletico-MG in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 games (1.36 PPG), while Atletico-MG have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Atletico-MG away?
Juventude's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 2.33 PPG; Atletico-MG away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 1 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 0W 1D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atletico-MG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Juventude
2
Draws
5
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Juventude vs Atletico-MG H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Atletico-MG?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Juventude have won 1, Atletico-MG have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Atletico-MG last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 October 2025: Atletico-MG 0-0 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Atletico-MG?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Atletico-MG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 50%, Atletico-MG 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Juventude and 100% for Atletico-MG. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Juventude vs Atletico-MG Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Juventude and Atletico-MG matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Juventude's games and 67% of Atletico-MG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Juventude and Atletico-MG matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Juventude's matches and 100% of Atletico-MG's.
Do Juventude and Atletico-MG matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Juventude's recent matches and 83% of Atletico-MG's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventude and Atletico-MG share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha, Regular Season - 17, as Juventude and Atletico-MG drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.77 xG and Atletico-MG 1.02 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 1.09 / defence 0.79 against Atletico-MG attack 1.20 / defence 1.17, drawn from 14/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 53% | Draw 26% | Atletico-MG 20%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 43%, Atletico-MG 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico-MG's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.36 PPG, Atletico-MG 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.