Internacional 0-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Internacional at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Internacional vs Fluminense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Fluminense travel to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda to take on Internacional. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 8 November 2023, 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Internacional have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Internacional's home record at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fluminense's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Internacional carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Internacional, 2 for Fluminense and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Jul 2023, ended 0–2 with Fluminense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Internacional trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Fluminense trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 49% versus Fluminense 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 45% | Fluminense 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 2.12 xG and Fluminense 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.228 / defence 1.254 | Fluminense attack 0.776 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.083. Fluminense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Internacional's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Internacional games / 69 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 62% | Draw 21% | Fluminense 18%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Fluminense 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Internacional (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Internacional as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Internacional 70% | Fluminense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Wednesday 8 Nov 2023, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 62% | Draw 21% | Fluminense 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Internacional 2.12 / Fluminense 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 1.228 / def 1.254 | Fluminense attack 0.776 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Internacional (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Fluminense xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Fluminense kick off?
Internacional vs Fluminense kicked off at 22:00 on Wednesday 8 November 2023 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Fluminense?
Internacional 0 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Internacional vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Fluminense part of?
Internacional vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 62% chance of winning, Fluminense a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Internacional and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Fluminense?
Record (4 meetings): Internacional 2W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 2W.
What form are Internacional and Fluminense in?
Internacional (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Fluminense (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Internacional's attack at 1.23x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Internacional's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.83
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Internacional xG
Total xG
3.17
1.05
Fluminense xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
12%
8.34
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
2%
47.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Internacional and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Internacional and 1.05 for Fluminense, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Fluminense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Internacional come into this having played 69 games, going 31W 22D 16L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Fluminense sit at 1.67 PPG from 69 outings (34W 13D 22L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Internacional on 1.67 PPG, Fluminense on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Internacional's home form reads 19W 9D 6L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Fluminense have taken 1.15 points per game from 34 outings (11W 6D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Internacional come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Internacional are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.52 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 31W 22D 16L in their last 69 games (1.67 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 34W 13D 22L in their last 69 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Fluminense away?
Internacional's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.94 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Internacional or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Fluminense in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Internacional and Fluminense runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Internacional won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Internacional's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Internacional
2
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Internacional have won 4, Fluminense have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Internacional 2-0 Fluminense.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 47%, Fluminense 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Internacional) and 44% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Fluminense in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Internacional's recent matches and 35% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Internacional vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Internacional's recent games and 44% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Fluminense tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Internacional's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 33, as Internacional and Fluminense drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 2.12 xG and Fluminense 1.05 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Internacional fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Fluminense landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.23 / defence 1.25 against Fluminense attack 0.78 / defence 1.27, drawn from 70/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 62% | Draw 21% | Fluminense 18%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 45%, Fluminense 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fluminense's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Internacional 1.67 PPG, Fluminense 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.