Gremio 0-2 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 49%, yet in-form Cruzeiro provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gremio vs Cruzeiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Gremio welcome Cruzeiro to Estádio Francisco Stédile in Serie A (matchday 16). Kick-off is Wednesday 10 July 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Gremio have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Gremio's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Gremio are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cruzeiro stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Cruzeiro have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Cruzeiro's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Gremio's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Gremio's 30% BTTS rate and Cruzeiro's 30% (from Gremio's last 10 home games and Cruzeiro's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Gremio, 1 for Cruzeiro and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Gremio 3–0 Cruzeiro — a Gremio win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gremio in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Cruzeiro in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 53% versus Cruzeiro 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 57% | Cruzeiro 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.34 xG and Cruzeiro 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.888 / defence 1.021 | Cruzeiro attack 0.676 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.051. Cruzeiro's attack rating of 0.676 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Gremio's last 51 games and Cruzeiro's last 52.
Result probabilities: Gremio 49% | Draw 32% | Cruzeiro 18%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.02 | Draw 3.10 | Cruzeiro 5.44. Gremio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gremio as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cruzeiro (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gremio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Gremio's last 10 home games and Cruzeiro's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gremio 30% (last 10 home games) | Cruzeiro 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, matchday 16 | Venue: Estádio Francisco Stédile • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 July 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 49% | Draw 32% | Cruzeiro 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Gremio 1.34 / Cruzeiro 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.888 / def 1.021 | Cruzeiro attack 0.676 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Gremio (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Cruzeiro xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gremio vs Cruzeiro FAQs
What time does Gremio vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Gremio vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Wednesday 10 July 2024 at Estádio Francisco Stédile.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Cruzeiro?
Gremio 0 - 2 Cruzeiro.
Where is Gremio vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Francisco Stédile.
What competition is Gremio vs Cruzeiro part of?
Gremio vs Cruzeiro is a Serie A fixture (matchday 16) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 49% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Gremio and Cruzeiro will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Gremio vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gremio's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Cruzeiro's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Cruzeiro's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gremio's last 51 games and Cruzeiro's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
49%
2.02
32%
3.10
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.06
0.73
Cruzeiro xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
5%
20.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gremio vs Cruzeiro Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Gremio and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Gremio and 0.73 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gremio's recent record stands at 24W 7D 20L from 51 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Cruzeiro, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 17L across 51 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gremio on 1.55 PPG, Cruzeiro on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gremio have managed 17W 3D 6L from their last 26 home games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cruzeiro's away record stands at 8W 8D 10L across their last 26 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gremio are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 1.04 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Cruzeiro
Blended
Gremio (Home) vs Cruzeiro (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gremio
Blended
Cruzeiro
Blended
❓ Gremio vs Cruzeiro Form FAQs
What form are Gremio and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 24W 7D 20L in their last 51 games (1.55 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 18W 16D 17L in their last 51 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Cruzeiro away?
Gremio's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 2.08 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Gremio or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Cruzeiro have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Aug 2023, when Gremio won Gremio 3-0 Cruzeiro.
Gremio's record when hosting Cruzeiro specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Gremio
1
Draws
6
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Gremio vs Cruzeiro H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Cruzeiro?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Gremio have won 1, Cruzeiro have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Gremio and Cruzeiro last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Gremio 2-4 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Cruzeiro see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Gremio 42% BTTS, Cruzeiro 23%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Gremio) and 35% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Cruzeiro in 46%; Cruzeiro in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gremio vs Cruzeiro Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gremio and Cruzeiro matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gremio's recent matches and 23% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gremio and Cruzeiro matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Gremio's recent games and 35% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Cruzeiro matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Gremio's recent matches and 50% of Cruzeiro's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cruzeiro cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat Gremio 0-2 at Estádio Francisco Stédile, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.34 xG and Cruzeiro 0.73 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gremio fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cruzeiro outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.89 / defence 1.02 against Cruzeiro attack 0.68 / defence 1.07, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 49% | Draw 32% | Cruzeiro 18%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Cruzeiro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 57%, Cruzeiro 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.55 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cruzeiro win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.