Fortaleza EC 3-1 Vitoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortaleza EC at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo plays host to Fortaleza EC versus Vitoria in Serie A (matchday 17). Kick-off: Thursday 18 July 2024 at 02:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Fortaleza EC have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Vitoria's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vitoria's away record over their last 7 away games: 1W 2D 4L (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward Fortaleza EC. A 0.50 PPG lead over Vitoria (1.90 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Fortaleza EC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Vitoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 50% versus Vitoria 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 38% | Vitoria 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.56 xG and Vitoria 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.030 / defence 0.732 | Vitoria attack 0.918 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.072. Fortaleza EC have a tight defence (rating 0.732), which is pulling Vitoria's projected output down. Data: built from Fortaleza EC's last 53 games and Vitoria's last 16.
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 56% | Draw 28% | Vitoria 16%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 1.78 | Draw 3.55 | Vitoria 6.37. The model has a clear lean to Fortaleza EC (56%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fortaleza EC as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Fortaleza EC 50% (last 10 home games) | Vitoria 71% (last 7 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria | Competition: Serie A, matchday 17 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Thursday 18 July 2024 at 02:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 56% | Draw 28% | Vitoria 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Fortaleza EC 1.56 / Vitoria 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.030 / def 0.732 | Vitoria attack 0.918 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Vitoria xG
42%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria FAQs
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria kicked off at 02:30 UK time on Thursday 18 July 2024 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria?
Fortaleza EC 3 - 1 Vitoria.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria is a Serie A fixture (matchday 17) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 56% chance of winning, Vitoria a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Vitoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortaleza EC's attack at 1.03x the league average against Vitoria's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitoria's attack (0.92x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from Fortaleza EC's last 53 games and Vitoria's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
56%
1.78
28%
3.55
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.29
0.72
Vitoria xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
3%
30.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Vitoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.72 for Vitoria, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortaleza EC's recent record stands at 8W 5D 3L from 16 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Vitoria, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 9L across 16 games — 0.94 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortaleza EC by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitoria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fortaleza EC have managed 5W 2D 0L from their last 7 home games — 2.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Fortaleza EC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vitoria's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across their last 7 away games, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Vitoria are on 1.12 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitoria in 62%.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Vitoria
Blended
Fortaleza EC (Home) vs Vitoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Vitoria
Blended
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria Form FAQs
What form are Fortaleza EC and Vitoria in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 8W 5D 3L in their last 16 games (1.81 PPG), while Vitoria have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Vitoria away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 2.43 PPG; Vitoria away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Vitoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Vitoria in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 13 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortaleza EC have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vitoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fortaleza EC
0
Draws
2
Vitoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Vitoria?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortaleza EC have won 2, Vitoria have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Vitoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2025: Fortaleza EC 2-0 Vitoria.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Vitoria see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 43%, Vitoria 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Fortaleza EC) and 57% (Vitoria).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Vitoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Vitoria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortaleza EC and Vitoria matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Fortaleza EC's games and 71% of Vitoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fortaleza EC and Vitoria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 57% of Vitoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Vitoria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 43% of Vitoria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortaleza EC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vitoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Vitoria 3-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.56 xG and Vitoria 0.72 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fortaleza EC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.03 / defence 0.73 against Vitoria attack 0.92 / defence 1.11, drawn from 53/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 56% | Draw 28% | Vitoria 16%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 38%, Vitoria 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Vitoria's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Vitoria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.