Fortaleza EC 3-0 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Vasco DA Gama travel to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to take on Fortaleza EC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024, 22:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortaleza EC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Fortaleza EC have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasco DA Gama stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Vasco DA Gama's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fortaleza EC 1.50 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fortaleza EC, 2 for Vasco DA Gama and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2024, ended 0–2 with Vasco DA Gama winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fortaleza EC in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 51% versus Vasco DA Gama 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 44% | Vasco DA Gama 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.74 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.110 / defence 0.761 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.787 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.008. Fortaleza EC's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 70 Fortaleza EC games / 70 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 65% | Draw 23% | Vasco DA Gama 12%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | Vasco DA Gama 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Fortaleza EC (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 50% | Vasco DA Gama 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 65% | Draw 23% | Vasco DA Gama 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 37% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.74 / Vasco DA Gama 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.110 / def 0.761 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.787 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (65%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Vasco DA Gama xG
37%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama?
Fortaleza EC 3 - 0 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 65% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 12% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (3 meetings): Fortaleza EC 1W | Draws 0 | Vasco DA Gama 2W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Vasco DA Gama in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (1.11) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
65%
1.54
23%
4.41
12%
8.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.34
0.60
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
8.05
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
36%
2.82
2%
45.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 10.1 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.60 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 32W 18D 20L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Vasco DA Gama's form line: 24W 16D 30L from 70 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortaleza EC on 1.63 PPG, Vasco DA Gama on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 2.09 PPG from 35 outings (21W 10D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Fortaleza EC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Vasco DA Gama have gone 6W 10D 19L from 35 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasco DA Gama's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.10 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 32W 18D 20L in their last 70 games (1.63 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 24W 16D 30L in their last 70 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 2.09 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Vasco DA Gama have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2024, when Fortaleza EC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fortaleza EC
0
Draws
4
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Vasco DA Gama?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 2, Vasco DA Gama have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2025, when Fortaleza EC 0-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 49%, Vasco DA Gama 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Fortaleza EC) and 37% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Vasco DA Gama?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 51% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 37% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fortaleza EC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Vasco DA Gama.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Vasco DA Gama 3-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.74 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.60 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fortaleza EC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.11 / defence 0.76 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.79 / defence 1.16, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 65% | Draw 23% | Vasco DA Gama 12%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 44%, Vasco DA Gama 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.63 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.51 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.