Fortaleza EC 2-2 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Botafogo make the trip to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to face Fortaleza EC in Serie A (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Thursday 23 November 2023 at 22:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Fortaleza EC have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Fortaleza EC have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Botafogo's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Botafogo have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Fortaleza EC against 0.90 for Botafogo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Botafogo have the stronger record — 3 wins to Fortaleza EC's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Jun 2023, ended Fortaleza EC 0–2 Botafogo — a Botafogo win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Botafogo have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Fortaleza EC half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Botafogo half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 45% versus Botafogo 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fortaleza EC 39% | Botafogo 39%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fortaleza EC surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Botafogo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.01 xG and Botafogo 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.954 / defence 1.027 | Botafogo attack 0.984 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.093. Data: built from Fortaleza EC's last 71 games and Botafogo's last 71.
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 33% | Draw 30% | Botafogo 37%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 3.06 | Draw 3.33 | Botafogo 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Botafogo 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Fortaleza EC's last 10 home games and Botafogo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fortaleza EC 40% (last 10 home games) | Botafogo 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 29 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Thursday 23 November 2023 at 22:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 33% | Draw 30% | Botafogo 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Fortaleza EC 1.01 / Botafogo 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.954 / def 1.027 | Botafogo attack 0.984 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Botafogo xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo FAQs
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo kicked off at 22:00 UK time on Thursday 23 November 2023 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo?
Fortaleza EC 2 - 2 Botafogo.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 29) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 33% chance of winning, Botafogo a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Botafogo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortaleza EC's attack at 0.95x the league average against Botafogo's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (0.98x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Fortaleza EC's last 71 games and Botafogo's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
33%
3.06
30%
3.33
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.12
1.10
Botafogo xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.10 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortaleza EC come into this having played 71 games, going 27W 17D 27L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Botafogo sit at 1.59 PPG from 71 outings (33W 14D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Fortaleza EC against 1.59 for Botafogo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fortaleza EC's home form reads 15W 12D 8L across their last 35 home games, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Botafogo have taken 1.60 points per game from their last 35 away games (16W 8D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.32 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
Fortaleza EC (Home) vs Botafogo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo Form FAQs
What form are Fortaleza EC and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 27W 17D 27L in their last 71 games (1.38 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 33W 14D 24L in their last 71 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Botafogo away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.63 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Botafogo in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 7 December 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Botafogo have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won Fortaleza EC 0-5 Botafogo on 10 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortaleza EC have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Botafogo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Fortaleza EC
2
Draws
6
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Botafogo?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortaleza EC have won 0, Botafogo have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Botafogo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 December 2025: Botafogo 4-2 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 40%, Botafogo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Fortaleza EC) and 40% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Botafogo in 31%; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 37% of games; Botafogo in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortaleza EC and Botafogo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 40% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fortaleza EC and Botafogo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 40% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Botafogo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 63% of Botafogo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortaleza EC and Botafogo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC and Botafogo finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.01 xG and Botafogo 1.10 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Fortaleza EC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Botafogo outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Botafogo attack 0.98 / defence 0.80, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 33% | Draw 30% | Botafogo 37%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 39%, Botafogo 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Botafogo's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.38 PPG, Botafogo 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.