Santos 2-1 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Santos (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Santos face Coritiba.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santos host Coritiba at Estádio Urbano Caldeira in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 October 2023 at 01:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Santos — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Santos at Estádio Urbano Caldeira this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coritiba stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Coritiba have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Santos are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Santos have won 2, Coritiba 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jun 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Santos in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Coritiba in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 48% versus Coritiba 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 50% | Coritiba 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 2.54 xG and Coritiba 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 1.144 / defence 1.402 | Coritiba attack 1.069 / defence 1.551. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.060. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.551 — this is suppressing Santos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Santos games / 66 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 58% | Draw 19% | Coritiba 23%. Fair-value odds: Santos 1.72 | Draw 5.26 | Coritiba 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Santos (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.13. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.13 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.54 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Santos as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Santos 80% | Coritiba 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 58% | Draw 19% | Coritiba 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 74% | xG Santos 2.54 / Coritiba 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 1.144 / def 1.402 | Coritiba attack 1.069 / def 1.551 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Santos (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Coritiba xG
74%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Coritiba kick off?
Santos vs Coritiba kicked off at 01:30 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Coritiba?
Santos 2 - 1 Coritiba.
Where is Santos vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Coritiba part of?
Santos vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 58% chance of winning, Coritiba a 23% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Santos and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Coritiba?
Record (3 meetings): Santos 2W | Draws 1 | Coritiba 0W.
What form are Santos and Coritiba in?
Santos (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Coritiba (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Santos's attack rating (1.14) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.55), the model arrives at 2.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.3%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
58%
1.73
19%
5.16
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
Santos xG
Total xG
4.13
1.59
Coritiba xG
1.73
58%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.81
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
8%
12.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
2%
55.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Santos and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Santos and 1.59 for Coritiba, a combined total of 4.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Santos have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 20W 17D 29L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Coritiba's form line: 17W 11D 38L from 66 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santos on 1.17 PPG, Coritiba on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Santos have posted 1.48 PPG from 33 outings (13W 10D 10L).
On the road, Coritiba have gone 3W 4D 26L from 33 away games — 0.39 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Santos are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.03 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Current Season
Coritiba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 20W 17D 29L in their last 66 games (1.17 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 17W 11D 38L in their last 66 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Coritiba away?
Santos's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.48 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Coritiba won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santos's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Santos
1
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Coritiba?
From 5 meetings on record, Santos have won 3, Coritiba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Santos 0-3 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Coritiba?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 58%, Coritiba 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Santos and 70% for Coritiba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coritiba in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Coritiba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Santos's games and 67% of Coritiba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Santos vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Santos's matches and 70% of Coritiba's.
Do Santos and Coritiba tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Santos edge out Coritiba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos beat Coritiba 2-1 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 2.54 xG and Coritiba 1.59 xG, a combined 4.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 1.14 / defence 1.40 against Coritiba attack 1.07 / defence 1.55, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 58% | Draw 19% | Coritiba 23%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 50%, Coritiba 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Coritiba's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santos 1.17 PPG, Coritiba 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santos win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.