Flamengo 1-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Fluminense travel to Estádio do Maracanã to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 July 2025, 23:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio do Maracanã, Flamengo have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Maracanã. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Flamengo 2.00 PPG, Fluminense 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Flamengo, 3 for Fluminense and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Fluminense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Fluminense trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 54% versus Fluminense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Flamengo 48% | Fluminense 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.81 xG and Fluminense 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.457 / defence 0.698 | Fluminense attack 1.131 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 0.886. Flamengo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.457 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Flamengo's defence rating of 0.698 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Flamengo games / 50 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 64% | Draw 22% | Fluminense 14%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Fluminense 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 30% | Fluminense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jul 2025, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 64% | Draw 22% | Fluminense 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 42% | xG Flamengo 1.81 / Fluminense 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.457 / def 0.698 | Fluminense attack 1.131 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.285 / away 0.886 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Fluminense xG
42%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Fluminense kick off?
Flamengo vs Fluminense kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 20 July 2025 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Flamengo 1 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Flamengo vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Flamengo vs Fluminense part of?
Flamengo vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 64% chance of winning, Fluminense a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Flamengo and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fluminense?
Record (7 meetings): Flamengo 2W | Draws 2 | Fluminense 3W.
What form are Flamengo and Fluminense in?
Flamengo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Fluminense (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.46x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
64%
1.56
22%
4.50
14%
7.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.51
0.70
Fluminense xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
7.27
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
16%
6.14
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
2%
44.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 10.3 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.70 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Flamengo's recent record stands at 27W 13D 10L from 50 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 20L across 50 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fluminense heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 15W 7D 3L from 25 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fluminense's away record stands at 7W 3D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 0.96 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 27W 13D 10L in their last 50 games (1.88 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 18W 12D 20L in their last 50 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Fluminense away?
Flamengo's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.08 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Fluminense in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Fluminense runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Flamengo's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Flamengo
2
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Fluminense have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Fluminense 1-2 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 52%, Fluminense 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Flamengo) and 24% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Fluminense in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Flamengo's recent matches and 32% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Flamengo's recent games and 24% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Fluminense tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Fluminense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Fluminense 1-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.81 xG and Fluminense 0.70 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.46 / defence 0.70 against Fluminense attack 1.13 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 64% | Draw 22% | Fluminense 14%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 48%, Fluminense 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fluminense's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.