Cruzeiro 1-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cruzeiro and Vasco DA Gama meet at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 September 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Cruzeiro (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cruzeiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cruzeiro have posted 6W 2D 2L at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cruzeiro are significantly better at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto than their overall form suggests.
Vasco DA Gama's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cruzeiro, 0 for Vasco DA Gama and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Cruzeiro goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Vasco DA Gama goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 31% versus Vasco DA Gama 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cruzeiro 34% | Vasco DA Gama 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.33 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 1.023 / defence 0.839 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.873 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.003. Data: 65 Cruzeiro games / 64 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 51% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 21%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Vasco DA Gama 4.76. Cruzeiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cruzeiro as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Cruzeiro 30% | Vasco DA Gama 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 51% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Cruzeiro 1.33 / Vasco DA Gama 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 1.023 / def 0.839 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.873 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Vasco DA Gama xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
Cruzeiro 1 - 1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 51% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cruzeiro and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (3 meetings): Cruzeiro 1W | Draws 2 | Vasco DA Gama 0W.
What form are Cruzeiro and Vasco DA Gama in?
Cruzeiro (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cruzeiro's attack at 1.02x the league average against Vasco DA Gama's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vasco DA Gama's attack (0.87x) against Cruzeiro's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 65/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.52
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.07
0.73
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
24%
4.08
5%
18.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.4 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 0.73 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cruzeiro come into this having played 64 games, going 23W 20D 21L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Cruzeiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasco DA Gama sit at 1.25 PPG from 64 outings (22W 14D 28L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Cruzeiro against 1.25 for Vasco DA Gama. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cruzeiro's home form reads 13W 10D 9L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasco DA Gama have taken 0.84 points per game from 32 outings (6W 9D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasco DA Gama's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cruzeiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cruzeiro are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.11 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Blended
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cruzeiro and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 23W 20D 21L in their last 64 games (1.39 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 22W 14D 28L in their last 64 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Cruzeiro's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 1.53 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or Vasco DA Gama been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Vasco DA Gama in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cruzeiro have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Cruzeiro
4
Draws
1
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Vasco DA Gama?
From 7 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 2, Vasco DA Gama have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Cruzeiro 3-3 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Vasco DA Gama?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 41%, Vasco DA Gama 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for Cruzeiro and 34% for Vasco DA Gama.
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cruzeiro have failed to score in 38% of games; Vasco DA Gama in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cruzeiro play Vasco DA Gama?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 53% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Cruzeiro's recent games and 34% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cruzeiro and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Cruzeiro have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cruzeiro and Vasco DA Gama share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 28, as Cruzeiro and Vasco DA Gama drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.33 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.73 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 1.02 / defence 0.84 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.87 / defence 0.97, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 51% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 21%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 34%, Vasco DA Gama 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cruzeiro 1.39 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.