Coritiba 1-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Internacional at 34% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coritiba vs Internacional encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coritiba and Internacional meet at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 October 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Coritiba's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Coritiba's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Coritiba are significantly better at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira than their overall form suggests.
Internacional (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Internacional's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Internacional arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Coritiba 0W, Internacional 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2022, ended 0–3 with Internacional winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Coritiba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Internacional goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 44% versus Internacional 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 47% | Internacional 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 0.94 xG and Internacional 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.907 / defence 0.975 | Internacional attack 1.010 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 0.960. Internacional's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 Coritiba games / 70 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 34% | Draw 32% | Internacional 34%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Internacional 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 40% | Internacional 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 34% | Draw 32% | Internacional 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Coritiba 0.94 / Internacional 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.907 / def 0.975 | Internacional attack 1.010 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.301 / away 0.960 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Internacional xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Internacional kick off?
Coritiba vs Internacional kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Internacional?
Coritiba 1 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Coritiba vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Internacional part of?
Coritiba vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 34% chance of winning, Internacional a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Coritiba and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Internacional?
Record (1 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 0 | Internacional 1W.
What form are Coritiba and Internacional in?
Coritiba (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Internacional (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Coritiba's attack at 0.91x the league average against Internacional's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Internacional's attack (1.01x) against Coritiba's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
34%
2.96
32%
3.12
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Coritiba xG
Total xG
1.88
0.94
Internacional xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 14.4 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Coritiba and 0.94 for Internacional, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Coritiba have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 10W 4D 18L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Internacional's form line: 16W 12D 4L from 32 games, 1.88 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Internacional are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coritiba.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Coritiba have posted 2.00 PPG from 16 outings (10W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Internacional have gone 6W 7D 3L from 16 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coritiba are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.53 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Internacional in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Internacional in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 10W 4D 18L in their last 32 games (1.06 PPG), while Internacional have gone 16W 12D 4L in their last 32 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Internacional away?
Coritiba's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 2.00 PPG; Internacional away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Coritiba or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Internacional in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Internacional won 3-0 on 25 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Internacional — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Coritiba
2
Draws
2
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Internacional?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Internacional have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Coritiba 2-2 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Internacional see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 38%, Internacional 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Coritiba and 31% for Internacional.
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Internacional in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Coritiba's recent matches and 50% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Coritiba's recent games and 31% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Internacional tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Internacional in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coritiba and Internacional share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 33, as Coritiba and Internacional drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 0.94 xG and Internacional 0.94 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against Internacional attack 1.01 / defence 0.79, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 34% | Draw 32% | Internacional 34%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 47%, Internacional 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Internacional's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Internacional arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.