Bahia 1-0 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Flamengo (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bahia face Flamengo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bahia host Flamengo at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 October 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Arena Fonte Nova this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Flamengo are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Flamengo, who boast 7 victories compared to 0 for Bahia.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Flamengo winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Flamengo have won 7 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Bahia in-play and half-time data (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 57% versus Flamengo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 52% | Flamengo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.21 xG and Flamengo 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.145 / defence 0.949 | Flamengo attack 1.295 / defence 0.755. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.025. Flamengo's defence strength of 0.755 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — the away xG of 1.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Bahia games / 63 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 35% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 38%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Flamengo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Bahia 50% | Flamengo 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 35% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Bahia 1.21 / Flamengo 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.145 / def 0.949 | Flamengo attack 1.295 / def 0.755 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Flamengo xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Flamengo kick off?
Bahia vs Flamengo kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Flamengo?
Bahia 1 - 0 Flamengo.
Where is Bahia vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Flamengo part of?
Bahia vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 35% chance of winning, Flamengo a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bahia and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Flamengo?
Record (7 meetings): Bahia 0W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 7W.
What form are Bahia and Flamengo in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Flamengo (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.15) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.68
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.47
1.26
Flamengo xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bahia and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Bahia and 1.26 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 26W 15D 22L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo's form line: 36W 17D 10L from 63 games, 1.98 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bahia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bahia have posted 2.00 PPG from 30 outings (18W 6D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 16W 7D 7L from 30 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bahia are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.76 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 26W 15D 22L in their last 63 games (1.48 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 36W 17D 10L in their last 63 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Flamengo away?
Bahia's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 2.00 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Bahia or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Flamengo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bahia and Flamengo runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jul 2021, when Flamengo won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bahia's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Bahia
0
Draws
8
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Flamengo?
From 9 meetings on record, Bahia have won 1, Flamengo have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Flamengo 2-0 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Flamengo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 43%, Flamengo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Bahia) and 50% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Flamengo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Bahia's recent matches and 60% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Bahia's recent games and 50% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Flamengo tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bahia defy the odds to beat Flamengo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Flamengo 1-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.21 xG and Flamengo 1.26 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.15 / defence 0.95 against Flamengo attack 1.29 / defence 0.76, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 35% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 38%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bahia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 52%, Flamengo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Flamengo's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Bahia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bahia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.