Atletico Goianiense 1-1 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ceara at 34% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 34 as Atletico Goianiense welcome Ceara to Estádio Antônio Accioly. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico Goianiense have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atletico Goianiense have posted 2W 6D 2L at Estádio Antônio Accioly — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ceara stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ceara away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ceara — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, Ceara 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Atletico Goianiense trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 13% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Ceara trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Goianiense 34% versus Ceara 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atletico Goianiense 28% | Ceara 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 0.87 xG and Ceara 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.728 / defence 1.019 | Ceara attack 0.926 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 0.965 / away 0.939. Atletico Goianiense's attack strength of 0.728 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ceara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Atletico Goianiense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Atletico Goianiense games / 33 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 33% | Draw 33% | Ceara 34%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Ceara 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Atletico Goianiense's lower xG of 0.87 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ceara at 34% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ceara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Goianiense 40% | Ceara 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 33% | Draw 33% | Ceara 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Atletico Goianiense 0.87 / Ceara 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.728 / def 1.019 | Ceara attack 0.926 / def 1.235 | league avg home 0.965 / away 0.939 • Poisson stance: Ceara (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Ceara xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara?
Atletico Goianiense 1 - 1 Ceara.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 33% chance of winning, Ceara a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Ceara?
Record (1 meetings): Atletico Goianiense 0W | Draws 1 | Ceara 0W.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Ceara in?
Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Ceara (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atletico Goianiense's attack rating (0.73) and Ceara's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ceara's attack versus Atletico Goianiense's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
33%
3.05
33%
2.99
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
1.75
0.89
Ceara xG
3.05
33%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
14%
7.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 15.4 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 0.89 for Ceara, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Atletico Goianiense have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 9W 12D 11L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Ceara's form line: 9W 15D 8L from 32 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atletico Goianiense on 1.22 PPG, Ceara on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atletico Goianiense have posted 1.33 PPG from 15 outings (4W 8D 3L).
On the road, Ceara have gone 1W 9D 5L from 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ceara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Goianiense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Goianiense are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 1.00 scored and 0.97 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Ceara in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Current Season
Ceara
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Ceara in coming into this match?
Atletico Goianiense have gone 9W 12D 11L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while Ceara have gone 9W 15D 8L in their last 32 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Goianiense at home or Ceara away?
Atletico Goianiense's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Goianiense at home: 1.33 PPG; Ceara away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Atletico Goianiense or Ceara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Ceara in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico Goianiense and Ceara runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atletico Goianiense's record when hosting Ceara specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Atletico Goianiense
3
Draws
0
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Ceara?
From 4 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 1, Ceara have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2022, when Atletico Goianiense 1-0 Ceara.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Ceara?
Atletico Goianiense have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Goianiense see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Goianiense 33%, Ceara 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 13% for Atletico Goianiense and 33% for Ceara.
On the defensive side: Atletico Goianiense keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Ceara in 40%; Atletico Goianiense have failed to score in 47% of games; Ceara in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Goianiense play Ceara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Atletico Goianiense's recent matches and 47% of Ceara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 13% of Atletico Goianiense's recent games and 33% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Goianiense and Ceara tend to score early?
Atletico Goianiense have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Ceara in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Goianiense and Ceara share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Goianiense and Ceara finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 0.87 xG and Ceara 0.89 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.73 / defence 1.02 against Ceara attack 0.93 / defence 1.24, drawn from 32/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 33% | Draw 33% | Ceara 34%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Goianiense 28%, Ceara 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Ceara's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Goianiense 1.22 PPG, Ceara 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.