Union St. Gilloise 1-0 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Championship Round - 7 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Genk to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Union St. Gilloise at Stade Joseph Mariën this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Genk — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Genk have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Union St. Gilloise, 3 for Genk and 0 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Genk in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 57% versus Genk 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 59% | Genk 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.64 xG and Genk 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.189 / defence 0.869 | Genk attack 1.148 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.113. Data: 60 Union St. Gilloise games / 60 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 48% | Draw 29% | Genk 24%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Genk 4.17. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 50% | Genk 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 48% | Draw 29% | Genk 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.64 / Genk 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.189 / def 0.869 | Genk attack 1.148 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Genk xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Genk kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Union St. Gilloise 1 - 0 Genk.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk is a Championship Round - 7 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 48% chance of winning, Genk a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
Record (7 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 4W | Draws 0 | Genk 3W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Genk in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Genk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.50
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.75
1.11
Genk xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
5%
21.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.11 for Genk, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 76 games, going 45W 20D 11L for 2.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.74 PPG from 76 outings (38W 18D 20L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union St. Gilloise on 2.04 PPG, Genk on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 24W 8D 5L across 37 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.46 points per game from 37 outings (15W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.55 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Genk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Genk in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 45W 20D 11L in their last 76 games (2.04 PPG), while Genk have gone 38W 18D 20L in their last 76 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Genk away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.16 PPG; Genk away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Genk in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Genk runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Genk specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, Genk have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 60%, Genk 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Union St. Gilloise) and 51% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 62% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 51% of Genk's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Genk tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Genk in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Genk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Genk 1-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Championship Round - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.64 xG and Genk 1.11 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Genk landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.19 / defence 0.87 against Genk attack 1.15 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 48% | Draw 29% | Genk 24%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 59%, Genk 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Genk's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.04 PPG, Genk 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.