Standard Liege 1-0 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Standard Liege face Genk.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Standard Liege host Genk at Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 25 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Standard Liege — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Standard Liege have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Genk have recorded 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Genk have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Standard Liege at 1.60 PPG versus Genk's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Standard Liege, 0 for Genk and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Apr 2023, ended Standard Liege 2–0 Genk — a Standard Liege win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Standard Liege in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Genk in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 55% versus Genk 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 53% | Genk 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.06 xG and Genk 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.885 / defence 0.888 | Genk attack 1.314 / defence 0.713. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.305. Genk bring a tight defence (rating 0.713, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Standard Liege's projected output down. Genk have an above-average attack rating of 1.314, which lifts their away xG to 1.52. Data: built from Standard Liege's last 47 games and Genk's last 48.
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 23% | Draw 32% | Genk 45%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 4.28 | Draw 3.16 | Genk 2.22. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Standard Liege 60% (last 10 home games) | Genk 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 15 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 23% | Draw 32% | Genk 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Standard Liege 1.06 / Genk 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.885 / def 0.888 | Genk attack 1.314 / def 0.713 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Genk (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Genk xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Standard Liege vs Genk FAQs
What time does Standard Liege vs Genk kick off?
Standard Liege vs Genk kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Genk?
Standard Liege 1 - 0 Genk.
Where is Standard Liege vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Genk part of?
Standard Liege vs Genk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 15) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 23% chance of winning, Genk a 45% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Standard Liege and Genk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Standard Liege vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Standard Liege's attack at 0.89x the league average against Genk's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Standard Liege's last 47 games and Genk's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
23%
4.28
32%
3.16
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.58
1.52
Genk xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
5%
19.63
16%
6.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Standard Liege vs Genk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.52 for Genk, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Standard Liege have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 19W 14D 20L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Genk's form line: 31W 14D 8L from 53 games, 2.02 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Standard Liege.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Standard Liege have posted 1.54 PPG from their last 26 home games (11W 7D 8L).
On the road, Genk have gone 14W 7D 5L from their last 26 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Standard Liege are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.15 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 64%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Genk
Blended
Standard Liege (Home) vs Genk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Standard Liege
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Standard Liege vs Genk Form FAQs
What form are Standard Liege and Genk in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 19W 14D 20L in their last 53 games (1.34 PPG), while Genk have gone 31W 14D 8L in their last 53 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.54 PPG; Genk away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Feb 2026, when Standard Liege won Genk 0-3 Standard Liege.
Standard Liege's record when hosting Genk specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Standard Liege
3
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Standard Liege vs Genk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Genk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Standard Liege have won 4, Genk have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Genk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Genk 2-1 Standard Liege.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Genk?
Standard Liege have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 50%, Genk 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Standard Liege) and 62% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Standard Liege vs Genk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Standard Liege and Genk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Standard Liege's games and 62% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Standard Liege and Genk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Standard Liege's matches and 62% of Genk's.
Do Standard Liege and Genk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 85% of Genk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Standard Liege defy the odds to beat Genk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat Genk 1-0 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.06 xG and Genk 1.52 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Genk landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.89 / defence 0.89 against Genk attack 1.31 / defence 0.71, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 23% | Draw 32% | Genk 45%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Standard Liege win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 53%, Genk 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Genk's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.34. Form was overturned, with Standard Liege winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Standard Liege (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.