Charleroi 3-2 KVC Westerlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KVC Westerlo at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees KVC Westerlo travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023, 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
KVC Westerlo — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KVC Westerlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KVC Westerlo's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charleroi 1.00 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
KVC Westerlo in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charleroi 60% and KVC Westerlo 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 55% | KVC Westerlo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.33 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.935 / defence 1.083 | KVC Westerlo attack 1.039 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.299. Data: 47 Charleroi games / 48 KVC Westerlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 32% | Draw 31% | KVC Westerlo 37%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | KVC Westerlo 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KVC Westerlo as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KVC Westerlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 80% | KVC Westerlo 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 32% | Draw 31% | KVC Westerlo 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Charleroi 1.33 / KVC Westerlo 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.935 / def 1.083 | KVC Westerlo attack 1.039 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: KVC Westerlo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.46
KVC Westerlo xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo kick off?
Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Charleroi 3 - 2 KVC Westerlo.
Where is Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo part of?
Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 32% chance of winning, KVC Westerlo a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making KVC Westerlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Charleroi and KVC Westerlo will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and KVC Westerlo in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. KVC Westerlo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.94) and KVC Westerlo's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, KVC Westerlo's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KVC Westerlo Win
32%
3.17
31%
3.22
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.79
1.46
KVC Westerlo xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
7%
13.68
10%
10.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Charleroi and KVC Westerlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.46 for KVC Westerlo, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 17W 10D 20L from 47 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KVC Westerlo, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 17L across 47 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for KVC Westerlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.30 PPG, KVC Westerlo on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 10W 5D 8L from 23 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KVC Westerlo's away record stands at 7W 10D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; KVC Westerlo are on 1.66 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KVC Westerlo in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
KVC Westerlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and KVC Westerlo in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 17W 10D 20L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while KVC Westerlo have gone 15W 15D 17L in their last 47 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or KVC Westerlo away?
Charleroi's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.52 PPG; KVC Westerlo away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
KVC Westerlo have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Charleroi's record when hosting KVC Westerlo specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Charleroi
1
Draws
3
KVC Westerlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 6, KVC Westerlo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and KVC Westerlo last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Charleroi 0-1 KVC Westerlo.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 65%, KVC Westerlo 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Charleroi) and 39% (KVC Westerlo).
On the defensive side: KVC Westerlo in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / KVC Westerlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play KVC Westerlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Charleroi's games and 61% of KVC Westerlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Charleroi's recent games and 39% of KVC Westerlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and KVC Westerlo tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, KVC Westerlo in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat KVC Westerlo 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat KVC Westerlo 3-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.33 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.46 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.94 / defence 1.08 against KVC Westerlo attack 1.04 / defence 0.86, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 32% | Draw 31% | KVC Westerlo 37%, with KVC Westerlo to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 55%, KVC Westerlo 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.30 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.