St. Truiden 0-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union St. Gilloise make the trip to Stayen to face St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
St. Truiden (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stayen this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for St. Truiden, 1.80 for Union St. Gilloise — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Union St. Gilloise hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 2–1 with St. Truiden winning.
It is worth noting that Union St. Gilloise have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 58% versus Union St. Gilloise 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 56% | Union St. Gilloise 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.34 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.963 / defence 0.991 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.309 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.397. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 St. Truiden games / 33 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 28% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 49%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Union St. Gilloise 2.04. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 70% | Union St. Gilloise 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stayen • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Sep 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 28% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG St. Truiden 1.34 / Union St. Gilloise 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.963 / def 0.991 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.309 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Union St. Gilloise xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
St. Truiden 0 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 28% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (9 meetings): St. Truiden 1W | Draws 1 | Union St. Gilloise 7W.
What form are St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Union St. Gilloise's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.31x) against St. Truiden's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
28%
3.52
23%
4.36
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
3.15
1.81
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.52
28%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
16%
6.12
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
5%
21.53
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.81 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 23W 7D 13L from 43 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 4L across 43 games — 2.16 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for St. Truiden against 2.16 for Union St. Gilloise. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 13W 3D 5L from 21 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 8W 9D 4L across 21 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union St. Gilloise's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
St. Truiden are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.72 scored and 0.65 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 23W 7D 13L in their last 43 games (1.77 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 27W 12D 4L in their last 43 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
St. Truiden's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 2.00 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.57 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-4 on 8 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
1
Draws
8
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when St. Truiden 0-3 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 57%, Union St. Gilloise 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (St. Truiden) and 38% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of St. Truiden's games and 57% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of St. Truiden's recent games and 38% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 0-3 hammering of St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat St. Truiden 0-3 at Stayen, Regular Season - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.34 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.81 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.31 / defence 0.86, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 28% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 49%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 56%, Union St. Gilloise 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.77 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.