St. Truiden 1-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Antwerp travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to take on St. Truiden. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 January 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Antwerp — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Antwerp are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Antwerp have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for St. Truiden.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 1–6 with Antwerp winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Antwerp have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
St. Truiden trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Antwerp trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 60% versus Antwerp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 48% | Antwerp 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.22 xG and Antwerp 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.914 / defence 1.197 | Antwerp attack 1.078 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.117. Data: 52 St. Truiden games / 52 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 29% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 40%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Antwerp 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 70% | Antwerp 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 29% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG St. Truiden 1.22 / Antwerp 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.914 / def 1.197 | Antwerp attack 1.078 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Antwerp xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Antwerp kick off?
St. Truiden vs Antwerp kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 24 January 2025 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
St. Truiden 1 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is St. Truiden vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Antwerp part of?
St. Truiden vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 29% chance of winning, Antwerp a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both St. Truiden and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
Record (6 meetings): St. Truiden 0W | Draws 2 | Antwerp 4W.
What form are St. Truiden and Antwerp in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Antwerp (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Antwerp's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
29%
3.42
31%
3.20
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.66
1.44
Antwerp xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
7%
14.45
12%
8.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.44 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 18W 21D 23L from 62 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 20L across 62 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.21 PPG, Antwerp on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 13W 11D 7L from 31 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — St. Truiden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Antwerp's away record stands at 10W 9D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.63 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Antwerp in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 18W 21D 23L in their last 62 games (1.21 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 26W 16D 20L in their last 62 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Antwerp away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.61 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and Antwerp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Antwerp won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Antwerp have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Antwerp 1-4 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 58%, Antwerp 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (St. Truiden) and 45% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 52% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of St. Truiden's recent games and 45% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Antwerp tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden and Antwerp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden and Antwerp finished level at 1-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.22 xG and Antwerp 1.44 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.91 / defence 1.20 against Antwerp attack 1.08 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 29% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 40%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 48%, Antwerp 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Antwerp's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.21 PPG, Antwerp 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.