Beerschot VA 0-4 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Beerschot VA face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise meet at Olympisch Stadion in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Beerschot VA have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Beerschot VA have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union St. Gilloise's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Beerschot VA's last 10 home games and Union St. Gilloise's last 10 away games) — Beerschot VA have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Union St. Gilloise in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Union St. Gilloise, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Aug 2024, ended Beerschot VA 1–3 Union St. Gilloise — a Union St. Gilloise win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Union St. Gilloise have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Beerschot VA goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Union St. Gilloise goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 54% versus Union St. Gilloise 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 60% | Union St. Gilloise 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.02 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.881 / defence 1.216 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.092 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.106. Union St. Gilloise bring a tight defence (rating 0.778, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Beerschot VA's projected output down. Beerschot VA's defence rating of 1.216 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union St. Gilloise's projected output up. Data: built from Beerschot VA's last 22 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 52.
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 23% | Draw 33% | Union St. Gilloise 44%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 4.34 | Draw 3.05 | Union St. Gilloise 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beerschot VA 70% (last 10 home games) | Union St. Gilloise 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 23 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 23% | Draw 33% | Union St. Gilloise 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Beerschot VA 1.02 / Union St. Gilloise 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.881 / def 1.216 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.092 / def 0.778 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Union St. Gilloise xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise FAQs
What time does Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise?
Beerschot VA 0 - 4 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 23) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 23% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Beerschot VA's attack at 0.88x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.09x) against Beerschot VA's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from Beerschot VA's last 22 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
23%
4.34
33%
3.05
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.49
1.47
Union St. Gilloise xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
5%
18.82
16%
6.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.47 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beerschot VA come into this having played 52 games, going 19W 12D 21L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Union St. Gilloise sit at 1.90 PPG from 52 outings (27W 18D 7L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Beerschot VA's home form reads 9W 10D 7L across their last 26 home games, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Union St. Gilloise have taken 1.62 points per game from their last 26 away games (10W 12D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.71 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise in 63%.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Beerschot VA (Home) vs Union St. Gilloise (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beerschot VA
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise Form FAQs
What form are Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 19W 12D 21L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 27W 18D 7L in their last 52 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.42 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Beerschot VA or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beerschot VA have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Union St. Gilloise have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won Union St. Gilloise 5-0 Beerschot VA on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beerschot VA have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Beerschot VA
0
Draws
4
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Beerschot VA have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 January 2025: Beerschot VA 0-4 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beerschot VA see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 54%, Union St. Gilloise 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Beerschot VA) and 46% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Beerschot VA have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Beerschot VA's games and 65% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 46% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 62% of Union St. Gilloise's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Beerschot VA.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Beerschot VA 0-4 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.02 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.47 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Beerschot VA fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.47 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.88 / defence 1.22 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.09 / defence 0.78, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 23% | Draw 33% | Union St. Gilloise 44%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 60%, Union St. Gilloise 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.