OH Leuven 1-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as OH Leuven take on Antwerp.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion plays host to OH Leuven versus Antwerp in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
OH Leuven have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, OH Leuven have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — OH Leuven are significantly better at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Antwerp (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Antwerp are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: OH Leuven 0W, Antwerp 2W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Antwerp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
OH Leuven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 58% versus Antwerp 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 50% | Antwerp 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.15 xG and Antwerp 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.959 / defence 0.925 | Antwerp attack 1.010 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.047. Antwerp's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 OH Leuven games / 40 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 36% | Draw 37% | Antwerp 27%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.78 | Draw 2.70 | Antwerp 3.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: OH Leuven 70% | Antwerp 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 36% | Draw 37% | Antwerp 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG OH Leuven 1.15 / Antwerp 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.959 / def 0.925 | Antwerp attack 1.010 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Antwerp xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Antwerp kick off?
OH Leuven vs Antwerp kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Antwerp?
OH Leuven 1 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is OH Leuven vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Antwerp part of?
OH Leuven vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 36% chance of winning, Antwerp a 27% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both OH Leuven and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Antwerp?
Record (4 meetings): OH Leuven 0W | Draws 2 | Antwerp 2W.
What form are OH Leuven and Antwerp in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Antwerp (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about OH Leuven vs Antwerp?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (0.96) and Antwerp's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (1.01x) against OH Leuven's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.78
37%
2.72
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.13
0.98
Antwerp xG
2.78
36%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for OH Leuven and 0.98 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OH Leuven's recent record stands at 13W 16D 21L from 50 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 17L across 50 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Antwerp by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OH Leuven heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, OH Leuven have managed 10W 6D 8L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 8W 6D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
OH Leuven are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.64 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Antwerp in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 13W 16D 21L in their last 50 games (1.10 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 22W 11D 17L in their last 50 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Antwerp away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.50 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.25 PPG.
Have OH Leuven or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
OH Leuven have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Antwerp in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OH Leuven won 3-0 on 15 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OH Leuven
4
Draws
4
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 2, Antwerp have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when OH Leuven 3-0 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 58%, Antwerp 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (OH Leuven) and 46% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 42% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OH Leuven vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of OH Leuven's recent games and 46% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Antwerp tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OH Leuven and Antwerp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as OH Leuven and Antwerp drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.15 xG and Antwerp 0.98 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Antwerp attack 1.01 / defence 0.76, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 36% | Draw 37% | Antwerp 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 50%, Antwerp 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Antwerp's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.