Genk 0-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genk and Charleroi meet at Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 17 September 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genk at Cegeka Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Charleroi (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Charleroi arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Genk have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Charleroi in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Genk are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 3 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Genk a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 59% versus Charleroi 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 59% | Charleroi 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.79 xG and Charleroi 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.108 / defence 1.045 | Charleroi attack 1.201 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.129. Charleroi have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 1.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Genk games / 36 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 45% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 29%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Charleroi 3.45. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Genk dominate the H2H record, yet Charleroi are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Genk as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charleroi (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genk 60% | Charleroi 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Sep 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 45% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Genk 1.79 / Charleroi 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.108 / def 1.045 | Charleroi attack 1.201 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Genk (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Charleroi xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Charleroi kick off?
Genk vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 17 September 2025 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Charleroi?
Genk 0 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Genk vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Charleroi part of?
Genk vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 45% chance of winning, Charleroi a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Genk and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Charleroi?
Record (6 meetings): Genk 3W | Draws 3 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are Genk and Charleroi in?
Genk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Charleroi (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genk's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.20x) against Genk's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
45%
2.25
27%
3.72
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Genk xG
Total xG
3.21
1.42
Charleroi xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
5%
21.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Genk and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Genk and 1.42 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Genk have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 27W 8D 11L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi's form line: 19W 13D 14L from 46 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charleroi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.32 PPG from 22 outings (16W 3D 3L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 6W 7D 9L from 22 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.46 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 27W 8D 11L in their last 46 games (1.93 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 19W 13D 14L in their last 46 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Charleroi away?
Genk's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.32 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-1 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
5
Draws
2
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 3, Charleroi have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Charleroi?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 46%, Charleroi 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Genk) and 50% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Charleroi in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Genk's recent matches and 59% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Genk's recent games and 50% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and Charleroi tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Genk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Genk 0-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.79 xG and Charleroi 1.42 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Genk fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.11 / defence 1.04 against Charleroi attack 1.20 / defence 1.10, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 45% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 29%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 59%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.52. Form was overturned, with Charleroi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.