Genk 2-0 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antwerp make the trip to Cegeka Arena to face Genk in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Genk have collected 2.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Genk have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Antwerp's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Antwerp's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward Genk. A 0.70 PPG lead over Antwerp (2.70 vs 2.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Genk edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2024, ended Genk 1–0 Antwerp — a Genk win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Genk — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Antwerp — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 52% versus Antwerp 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 52% | Antwerp 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.53 xG and Antwerp 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.255 / defence 0.918 | Antwerp attack 1.009 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.087. Genk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.255 — their 1.53 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Antwerp bring a tight defence (rating 0.791, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Genk's projected output down. Data: built from Genk's last 42 games and Antwerp's last 42.
Result probabilities: Genk 46% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 22%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.15 | Draw 3.18 | Antwerp 4.52. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Genk 40% (last 10 home games) | Antwerp 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 13 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 46% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Genk 1.53 / Antwerp 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.255 / def 0.918 | Antwerp attack 1.009 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Genk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Antwerp xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genk vs Antwerp FAQs
What time does Genk vs Antwerp kick off?
Genk vs Antwerp kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Antwerp?
Genk 2 - 0 Antwerp.
Where is Genk vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Antwerp part of?
Genk vs Antwerp is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 13) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 46% chance of winning, Antwerp a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Genk and Antwerp will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Genk vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Genk's attack rating (1.25) and Antwerp's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (1.01x) against Genk's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Genk's last 42 games and Antwerp's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
46%
2.15
31%
3.18
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Genk xG
Total xG
2.53
1.01
Antwerp xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
5%
20.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genk vs Antwerp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Genk and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Genk and 1.01 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genk's recent record stands at 24W 13D 15L from 52 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 17L across 52 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Genk against 1.56 for Antwerp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Genk have managed 14W 7D 4L from their last 25 home games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 8W 7D 10L across their last 25 away games, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.65 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
Genk (Home) vs Antwerp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genk
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Genk vs Antwerp Form FAQs
What form are Genk and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 24W 13D 15L in their last 52 games (1.63 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 23W 12D 17L in their last 52 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Antwerp away?
Genk's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.96 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Genk or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Antwerp in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won Antwerp 3-0 Genk on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
5
Draws
2
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Genk vs Antwerp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Antwerp?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Genk have won 3, Antwerp have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Antwerp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Antwerp 4-4 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Antwerp?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 48%, Antwerp 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Genk) and 44% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Antwerp in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genk vs Antwerp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genk and Antwerp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Genk's recent matches and 44% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genk and Antwerp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Genk's recent games and 44% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and Antwerp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Genk's recent matches and 76% of Antwerp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Antwerp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Antwerp 2-0 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.53 xG and Antwerp 1.01 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Antwerp landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.25 / defence 0.92 against Antwerp attack 1.01 / defence 0.79, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 46% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 22%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 52%, Antwerp 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Antwerp's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.63 PPG, Antwerp 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.