Kortrijk 1-2 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Kortrijk take on Antwerp.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antwerp make the trip to Guldensporenstadion to face Kortrijk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Kortrijk (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Kortrijk are significantly better at Guldensporenstadion than their overall form suggests.
Antwerp have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Antwerp are 0.60 PPG clear of Kortrijk in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kortrijk lead 2W to 4W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Antwerp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 41% versus Antwerp 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 53% | Antwerp 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 0.99 xG and Antwerp 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.762 / defence 0.972 | Antwerp attack 0.929 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.025. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Kortrijk games / 43 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 32% | Draw 39% | Antwerp 29%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 3.12 | Draw 2.56 | Antwerp 3.45. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 50% | Antwerp 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 32% | Draw 39% | Antwerp 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 41% | xG Kortrijk 0.99 / Antwerp 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.762 / def 0.972 | Antwerp attack 0.929 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Antwerp xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Antwerp kick off?
Kortrijk vs Antwerp kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Kortrijk 1 - 2 Antwerp.
Where is Kortrijk vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Antwerp part of?
Kortrijk vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 32% chance of winning, Antwerp a 29% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Kortrijk and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Antwerp?
Record (6 meetings): Kortrijk 2W | Draws 0 | Antwerp 4W.
What form are Kortrijk and Antwerp in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Antwerp (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kortrijk's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Antwerp's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (0.93x) against Kortrijk's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.10
39%
2.58
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
1.92
0.93
Antwerp xG
3.10
32%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 13.6 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Kortrijk and 0.93 for Antwerp, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kortrijk come into this having played 51 games, going 14W 9D 28L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.53 PPG from 51 outings (22W 12D 17L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Kortrijk's home form reads 9W 4D 12L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 1.24 points per game from 25 outings (8W 7D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kortrijk are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.67 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 14W 9D 28L in their last 51 games (1.00 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 22W 12D 17L in their last 51 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Antwerp away?
Kortrijk's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.24 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Kortrijk or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Antwerp in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Antwerp have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 6-0 on 11 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kortrijk
0
Draws
6
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Antwerp?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 2, Antwerp have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Antwerp 2-1 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 48%, Antwerp 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kortrijk) and 44% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 32% of games; Antwerp in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 44% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Kortrijk's recent games and 44% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Antwerp tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antwerp defy the odds to beat Kortrijk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Kortrijk 1-2 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 0.99 xG and Antwerp 0.93 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Antwerp outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.76 / defence 0.97 against Antwerp attack 0.93 / defence 0.83, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 32% | Draw 39% | Antwerp 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Antwerp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 53%, Antwerp 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Antwerp's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.