Charleroi vs Genk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus Genk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 19 December 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Genk have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Charleroi's favour (2.20 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Charleroi 2W, Genk 3W, 5D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 2–0 with Charleroi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Charleroi — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Genk — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 53% versus Genk 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 42% | Genk 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 2.44 xG and Genk 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.221 / defence 0.993 | Genk attack 1.248 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.386. Genk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Genk have an above-average attack strength of 1.248 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Charleroi games / 34 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 54% | Draw 19% | Genk 27%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.85 | Draw 5.26 | Genk 3.70. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.16. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.16 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.44 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 78% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | Genk 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 54% | Draw 19% | Genk 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 75% | xG Charleroi 2.44 / Genk 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.221 / def 0.993 | Genk attack 1.248 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Genk xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Genk kick off?
Charleroi vs Genk is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
Where is Charleroi vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Genk part of?
Charleroi vs Genk is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 54% chance of winning, Genk a 27% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Charleroi and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Genk?
Record (10 meetings): Charleroi 2W | Draws 5 | Genk 3W.
What form are Charleroi and Genk in?
Charleroi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Genk (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (1.22) and Genk's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.25x) against Charleroi's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
54%
1.86
19%
5.21
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
1 – 1
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Charleroi xG
Total xG
4.16
1.72
Genk xG
1.86
54%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.98
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
9%
11.45
Win to Nil
10%
10.34
2%
42.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.72 for Genk, a combined total of 4.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 18W 9D 18L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genk's form line: 17W 17D 11L from 45 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Charleroi against 1.51 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L).
On the road, Genk have gone 8W 9D 6L from 23 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.51 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Genk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Genk in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 18W 9D 18L in their last 45 games (1.40 PPG), while Genk have gone 17W 17D 11L in their last 45 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.30 PPG; Genk away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-1 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Charleroi
5
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 2, Genk have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Charleroi, 70% for Genk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Charleroi) and 65% (Genk).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Charleroi's games and 70% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Charleroi's recent games and 65% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Genk tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Genk in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.