Beerschot VA 0-3 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beerschot VA at 49%, yet in-form St. Truiden provide a compelling counter-argument — this Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beerschot VA and St. Truiden meet at Olympisch Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Beerschot VA's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Beerschot VA have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beerschot VA at Olympisch Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympisch Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Beerschot VA are significantly better at Olympisch Stadion than their overall form suggests.
St. Truiden (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
St. Truiden arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Beerschot VA, 2 for St. Truiden and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 2–3 with St. Truiden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 54% versus St. Truiden 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 57% | St. Truiden 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.79 xG and St. Truiden 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.865 / defence 1.314 | St. Truiden attack 0.865 / defence 1.340. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.133. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.340 — this is suppressing Beerschot VA's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Beerschot VA games / 37 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 49% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 27%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | St. Truiden 3.70. Beerschot VA hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beerschot VA at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St. Truiden (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Beerschot VA 40% | St. Truiden 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 49% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Beerschot VA 1.79 / St. Truiden 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.865 / def 1.314 | St. Truiden attack 0.865 / def 1.340 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.29
St. Truiden xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden kick off?
Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden?
Beerschot VA 0 - 3 St. Truiden.
Where is Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden part of?
Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 49% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Beerschot VA and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and St. Truiden?
Record (2 meetings): Beerschot VA 0W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 2W.
What form are Beerschot VA and St. Truiden in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Beerschot VA's attack rating (0.86) and St. Truiden's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (0.86x) against Beerschot VA's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
49%
2.06
24%
4.13
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
3.08
1.29
St. Truiden xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
5%
22.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.29 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beerschot VA's recent record stands at 17W 6D 14L from 37 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Beerschot VA, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 13L across 37 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Beerschot VA against 1.24 for St. Truiden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Beerschot VA have managed 7W 5D 6L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 2W 5D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.61 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St. Truiden's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.24 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 17W 6D 14L in their last 37 games (1.54 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 11W 13D 13L in their last 37 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or St. Truiden away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.44 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
St. Truiden have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 0-3 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beerschot VA have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Beerschot VA
0
Draws
6
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and St. Truiden?
From 6 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 0, St. Truiden have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when St. Truiden 2-1 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beerschot VA see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 50%, St. Truiden 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Beerschot VA) and 56% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Beerschot VA have failed to score in 28% of games; St. Truiden in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 56% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 56% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant St. Truiden run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Beerschot VA.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Beerschot VA 0-3 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.79 xG and St. Truiden 1.29 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Beerschot VA fell 1.8 short of their projected output. St. Truiden outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.86 / defence 1.31 against St. Truiden attack 0.86 / defence 1.34, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 49% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 27%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual St. Truiden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 57%, St. Truiden 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St. Truiden's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.54 PPG, St. Truiden 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.