Cercle Brugge 1-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cercle Brugge at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden meet at Jan Breydelstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 September 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
Cercle Brugge's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cercle Brugge at Jan Breydelstadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cercle Brugge are significantly better at Jan Breydelstadion than their overall form suggests.
St. Truiden have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Cercle Brugge, who have won 4 of the last 4 meetings against St. Truiden — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 4–1 with Cercle Brugge winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Cercle Brugge and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Cercle Brugge — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cercle Brugge 54% versus St. Truiden 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 52% | St. Truiden 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 2.10 xG and St. Truiden 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 1.139 / defence 1.179 | St. Truiden attack 1.041 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.140. Data: 38 Cercle Brugge games / 38 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 52% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 24%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | St. Truiden 4.17. Cercle Brugge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cercle Brugge as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cercle Brugge if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cercle Brugge 80% | St. Truiden 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 52% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Cercle Brugge 2.10 / St. Truiden 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 1.139 / def 1.179 | St. Truiden attack 1.041 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Cercle Brugge (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
1.40
St. Truiden xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Cercle Brugge 1 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden part of?
Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 52% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cercle Brugge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden?
Record (4 meetings): Cercle Brugge 4W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 0W.
What form are Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden in?
Cercle Brugge (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cercle Brugge's attack at 1.14x the league average against St. Truiden's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.04x) against Cercle Brugge's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cercle Brugge Win
52%
1.92
24%
4.16
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
3.50
1.40
St. Truiden xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
12%
8.17
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
3%
34.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.40 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cercle Brugge's recent record stands at 19W 10D 19L from 48 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 15W 17D 16L across 48 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Cercle Brugge against 1.29 for St. Truiden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cercle Brugge have managed 11W 4D 9L from 24 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 4W 9D 11L across 24 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St. Truiden's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cercle Brugge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.25 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 19W 10D 19L in their last 48 games (1.40 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 15W 17D 16L in their last 48 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cercle Brugge at home or St. Truiden away?
Cercle Brugge's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cercle Brugge at home: 1.54 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cercle Brugge won 4-1 on 4 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cercle Brugge have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cercle Brugge
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Cercle Brugge have won 5, St. Truiden have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when St. Truiden 2-1 Cercle Brugge.
Who has won more matches between Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden?
Cercle Brugge have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cercle Brugge 62%, St. Truiden 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Cercle Brugge) and 54% (St. Truiden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cercle Brugge play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Cercle Brugge's games and 58% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Cercle Brugge's matches and 54% of St. Truiden's.
Do Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Cercle Brugge have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 9, as Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 2.10 xG and St. Truiden 1.40 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cercle Brugge fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 1.14 / defence 1.18 against St. Truiden attack 1.04 / defence 1.17, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 52% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 24%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 52%, St. Truiden 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.40 PPG, St. Truiden 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.