Antwerp vs Kortrijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Antwerp (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Antwerp face Kortrijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bosuilstadion plays host to Antwerp versus Kortrijk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp at Bosuilstadion this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Kortrijk have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Antwerp's favour (1.00 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 9 previous meetings, Antwerp are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 2, with 0 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 3–0 with Antwerp winning.
The historical record gives Antwerp a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Antwerp half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 42% versus Kortrijk 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 51% | Kortrijk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 2.19 xG and Kortrijk 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.054 / defence 1.149 | Kortrijk attack 0.584 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.370. Data: 40 Antwerp games / 10 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 66% | Draw 19% | Kortrijk 15%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Kortrijk 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Antwerp (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Antwerp 40% | Kortrijk 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 66% | Draw 19% | Kortrijk 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 53% | xG Antwerp 2.19 / Kortrijk 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.054 / def 1.149 | Kortrijk attack 0.584 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Kortrijk xG
53%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Kortrijk kick off?
Antwerp vs Kortrijk is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Bosuilstadion.
Where is Antwerp vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Kortrijk part of?
Antwerp vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 66% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Antwerp and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Kortrijk?
Record (9 meetings): Antwerp 7W | Draws 0 | Kortrijk 2W.
What form are Antwerp and Kortrijk in?
Antwerp (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (1.05) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.58x) against Antwerp's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
66%
1.51
19%
5.22
15%
6.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Antwerp xG
Total xG
3.11
0.92
Kortrijk xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
6.85
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
11%
8.92
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
2%
61.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Antwerp and 0.92 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Antwerp have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 14W 6D 21L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk's form line: 21W 5D 15L from 41 games, 1.66 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kortrijk are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antwerp.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Antwerp have posted 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (8W 3D 9L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 6W 4D 10L from 20 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kortrijk's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antwerp are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.46 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 14W 6D 21L in their last 41 games (1.17 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 21W 5D 15L in their last 41 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Kortrijk away?
Antwerp's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.35 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Antwerp go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 6-0 on 11 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Antwerp
0
Draws
2
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Kortrijk?
From 9 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 7, Kortrijk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Kortrijk 0-3 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Kortrijk?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 45%, Kortrijk 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Antwerp) and 50% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Antwerp have failed to score in 30% of games; Kortrijk in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Antwerp's recent matches and 45% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Antwerp's recent games and 50% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.