Antwerp 2-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Antwerp (66%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Antwerp face Kortrijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bosuilstadion plays host to Antwerp versus Kortrijk in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 17:15 UK time.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Antwerp at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Antwerp are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kortrijk have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Antwerp's favour (1.30 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Antwerp, who have won 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Kortrijk — Kortrijk have 2 wins, with 0 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2024, ended Antwerp 2–1 Kortrijk — a Antwerp win.
The head-to-head data gives Antwerp an edge — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Antwerp half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 54% versus Kortrijk 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 56% | Kortrijk 56%). Note also that Kortrijk surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Antwerp recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 2.32 xG and Kortrijk 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.235 / defence 1.037 | Kortrijk attack 0.842 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.115. Kortrijk's defence rating of 1.208 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Antwerp's projected output up. Data: built from Antwerp's last 55 games and Kortrijk's last 55.
Result probabilities: Antwerp 66% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 12%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.53 | Draw 4.53 | Kortrijk 8.06. The model has a clear lean to Antwerp (66%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Antwerp's last 10 home games and Kortrijk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Antwerp 50% (last 10 home games) | Kortrijk 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 66% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Antwerp 2.32 / Kortrijk 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.235 / def 1.037 | Kortrijk attack 0.842 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Kortrijk xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antwerp vs Kortrijk FAQs
What time does Antwerp vs Kortrijk kick off?
Antwerp vs Kortrijk kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Antwerp 2 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Antwerp vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Kortrijk part of?
Antwerp vs Kortrijk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 66% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Antwerp and Kortrijk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Antwerp vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (1.24) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.84x) against Antwerp's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Antwerp's last 55 games and Kortrijk's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
66%
1.53
22%
4.53
12%
8.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Antwerp xG
Total xG
3.29
0.97
Kortrijk xG
1.53
66%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
8.06
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
10%
10.15
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
1%
81.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antwerp vs Kortrijk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Antwerp and 0.97 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Antwerp have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 26W 17D 20L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Kortrijk's form line: 15W 11D 37L from 63 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Antwerp are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kortrijk.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Antwerp have posted 1.77 PPG from their last 31 home games (16W 7D 8L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 5W 7D 19L from their last 31 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antwerp are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.86 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
Antwerp (Home) vs Kortrijk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antwerp
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Antwerp vs Kortrijk Form FAQs
What form are Antwerp and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 26W 17D 20L in their last 63 games (1.51 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 15W 11D 37L in their last 63 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Kortrijk away?
Antwerp's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.77 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Antwerp have won the most recent 6 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won Antwerp 6-0 Kortrijk on 11 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Antwerp
0
Draws
2
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Antwerp vs Kortrijk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Kortrijk?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Antwerp have won 7, Kortrijk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Kortrijk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Kortrijk 0-3 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Kortrijk?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 55%, Kortrijk 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Antwerp and 55% for Kortrijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Kortrijk in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antwerp vs Kortrijk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antwerp and Kortrijk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Antwerp's recent matches and 39% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Antwerp and Kortrijk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Antwerp's matches and 55% of Kortrijk's.
Do Antwerp and Kortrijk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Antwerp's recent matches and 77% of Kortrijk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antwerp edge out Kortrijk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Kortrijk 2-1 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 2.32 xG and Kortrijk 0.97 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.24 / defence 1.04 against Kortrijk attack 0.84 / defence 1.21, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 66% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 12%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 56%, Kortrijk 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.