Charleroi 0-1 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charleroi and Anderlecht meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 February 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Anderlecht's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Charleroi, 1.60 for Anderlecht — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Anderlecht hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Anderlecht have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Anderlecht half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 49% versus Anderlecht 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | Anderlecht 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.14 xG and Anderlecht 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.043 / defence 0.874 | Anderlecht attack 1.045 / defence 0.708. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.135. Anderlecht's defence strength of 0.708 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Charleroi games / 55 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 36% | Draw 34% | Anderlecht 30%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Anderlecht 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 50% | Anderlecht 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 36% | Draw 34% | Anderlecht 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Charleroi 1.14 / Anderlecht 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.043 / def 0.874 | Anderlecht attack 1.045 / def 0.708 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Anderlecht xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Anderlecht kick off?
Charleroi vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Charleroi 0 - 1 Anderlecht.
Where is Charleroi vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Anderlecht part of?
Charleroi vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 36% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Charleroi and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
Record (7 meetings): Charleroi 1W | Draws 1 | Anderlecht 5W.
What form are Charleroi and Anderlecht in?
Charleroi (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Anderlecht (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.04x the league average against Anderlecht's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (1.04x) against Charleroi's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
36%
2.79
34%
2.97
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.18
1.04
Anderlecht xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
10%
10.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.04 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 21W 15D 25L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht's form line: 31W 17D 13L from 61 games, 1.80 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Anderlecht are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charleroi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.67 PPG from 30 outings (14W 8D 8L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 11W 11D 8L from 30 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.80 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 21W 15D 25L in their last 61 games (1.28 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 31W 17D 13L in their last 61 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Anderlecht away?
Charleroi's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.67 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 26 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won 4-0 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
1
Draws
6
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Anderlecht have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2025, when Anderlecht 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 57%, Anderlecht 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Charleroi) and 57% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Anderlecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Charleroi's games and 67% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Charleroi's recent games and 57% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Anderlecht defy the odds to beat Charleroi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Charleroi 0-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.14 xG and Anderlecht 1.04 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.04 / defence 0.87 against Anderlecht attack 1.04 / defence 0.71, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 36% | Draw 34% | Anderlecht 30%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Anderlecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, Anderlecht 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Anderlecht's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Anderlecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.