Zulte Waregem 2-5 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RSC Anderlecht II at 53%, yet in-form Zulte Waregem provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Elindus Arena plays host to Zulte Waregem versus RSC Anderlecht II in Challenger Pro League (matchday 13). Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Zulte Waregem have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Zulte Waregem have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
RSC Anderlecht II's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, RSC Anderlecht II have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Zulte Waregem. A 0.70 PPG lead over RSC Anderlecht II (2.00 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
RSC Anderlecht II — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 66% and RSC Anderlecht II 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 64% | RSC Anderlecht II 66%). Note also that RSC Anderlecht II surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Zulte Waregem recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 0.81 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.717 / defence 0.993 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.027 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.446. Zulte Waregem's attack rating of 0.717 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Zulte Waregem's last 12 games and RSC Anderlecht II's last 34.
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 21% | Draw 27% | RSC Anderlecht II 53%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 4.88 | Draw 3.77 | RSC Anderlecht II 1.89. RSC Anderlecht II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RSC Anderlecht II at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zulte Waregem (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RSC Anderlecht II if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Zulte Waregem 60% (last 10 home games) | RSC Anderlecht II 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 13 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 21% | Draw 27% | RSC Anderlecht II 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Zulte Waregem 0.81 / RSC Anderlecht II 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.717 / def 0.993 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.027 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: RSC Anderlecht II (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.47
RSC Anderlecht II xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II FAQs
What time does Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Zulte Waregem 2 - 5 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 13) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 21% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RSC Anderlecht II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Zulte Waregem and RSC Anderlecht II will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 0.72x the league average against RSC Anderlecht II's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RSC Anderlecht II's attack (1.03x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from Zulte Waregem's last 12 games and RSC Anderlecht II's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RSC Anderlecht II Win
21%
4.88
27%
3.77
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.28
1.47
RSC Anderlecht II xG
4.88
21%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
5%
21.27
24%
4.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 15.1 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.47 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 12W 11D 21L from 44 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five.
RSC Anderlecht II, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 17L across 44 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.20 for RSC Anderlecht II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 4W 5D 12L from their last 21 home games — 0.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RSC Anderlecht II's away record stands at 9W 5D 7L across their last 21 away games, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RSC Anderlecht II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.48 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; RSC Anderlecht II in 66%.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
Zulte Waregem (Home) vs RSC Anderlecht II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zulte Waregem
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
❓ Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II Form FAQs
What form are Zulte Waregem and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 12W 11D 21L in their last 44 games (1.07 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 13W 14D 17L in their last 44 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
RSC Anderlecht II's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 0.81 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Zulte Waregem have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RSC Anderlecht II won Zulte Waregem 2-5 RSC Anderlecht II on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against RSC Anderlecht II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
1
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and RSC Anderlecht II?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Zulte Waregem have won 3, RSC Anderlecht II have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2025: Zulte Waregem 3-1 RSC Anderlecht II.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and RSC Anderlecht II?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Zulte Waregem, 67% for RSC Anderlecht II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Zulte Waregem and 62% for RSC Anderlecht II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zulte Waregem and RSC Anderlecht II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Zulte Waregem's games and 67% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zulte Waregem and RSC Anderlecht II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 62% of RSC Anderlecht II's.
Do Zulte Waregem and RSC Anderlecht II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 67% of RSC Anderlecht II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RSC Anderlecht II run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RSC Anderlecht II beat Zulte Waregem 2-5 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 0.81 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.47 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RSC Anderlecht II outscored their 1.47 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.72 / defence 0.99 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.03 / defence 0.92, drawn from 12/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 21% | Draw 27% | RSC Anderlecht II 53%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 64%, RSC Anderlecht II 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.07 PPG, RSC Anderlecht II 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RSC Anderlecht II win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.