K. Lierse S.K. 1-4 Standard Liège II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates K. Lierse S.K. at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as K. Lierse S.K. face Standard Liège II.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Standard Liège II make the trip to Herman Vanderpoortenstadion to face K. Lierse S.K. in Challenger Pro League (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Sunday 26 November 2023 at 18:15 UK time.
Form
K. Lierse S.K. (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
K. Lierse S.K.'s form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Standard Liège II have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Standard Liège II away from home: 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for K. Lierse S.K., 0.90 for Standard Liège II — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, K. Lierse S.K. edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2022, ended K. Lierse S.K. 4–2 Standard Liège II — a K. Lierse S.K. win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
K. Lierse S.K. — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Standard Liège II — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — K. Lierse S.K. 65% and Standard Liège II 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (K. Lierse S.K. 72% | Standard Liège II 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.83 xG and Standard Liège II 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.026 / defence 1.057 | Standard Liège II attack 0.610 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.472. Standard Liège II's defence rating of 1.439 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing K. Lierse S.K.'s projected output up. Standard Liège II's attack rating of 0.610 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from K. Lierse S.K.'s last 34 games and Standard Liège II's last 33.
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 58% | Draw 23% | Standard Liège II 19%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 1.72 | Draw 4.41 | Standard Liège II 5.19. The model has a clear lean to K. Lierse S.K. (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, K. Lierse S.K. are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (K. Lierse S.K.'s last 10 home games and Standard Liège II's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: K. Lierse S.K. 60% (last 10 home games) | Standard Liège II 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs Standard Liège II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 13 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 58% | Draw 23% | Standard Liège II 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.83 / Standard Liège II 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.026 / def 1.057 | Standard Liège II attack 0.610 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.472 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Standard Liège II xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs Standard Liège II FAQs
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs Standard Liège II kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Standard Liège II kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Standard Liège II?
K. Lierse S.K. 1 - 4 Standard Liège II.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs Standard Liège II being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs Standard Liège II part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Standard Liège II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 13) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs Standard Liège II?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 58% chance of winning, Standard Liège II a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Standard Liège II?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and Standard Liège II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs Standard Liège II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
K. Lierse S.K.'s attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Standard Liège II's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Standard Liège II's attack (0.61x) against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from K. Lierse S.K.'s last 34 games and Standard Liège II's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.41
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
2.78
0.95
Standard Liège II xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
32.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs Standard Liège II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs Standard Liège II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and Standard Liège II expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 0.95 for Standard Liège II, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs Standard Liège II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, K. Lierse S.K. have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 18W 7D 18L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Standard Liège II's form line: 8W 12D 23L from 43 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, K. Lierse S.K. are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Standard Liège II.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 1.45 PPG from their last 22 home games (10W 2D 10L).
On the road, Standard Liège II have gone 3W 4D 15L from their last 22 away games — 0.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, K. Lierse S.K. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Standard Liège II are on 0.93 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
Standard Liège II
Blended
K. Lierse S.K. (Home) vs Standard Liège II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
Standard Liège II
Blended
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs Standard Liège II Form FAQs
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Standard Liège II in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 18W 7D 18L in their last 43 games (1.42 PPG), while Standard Liège II have gone 8W 12D 23L in their last 43 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or Standard Liège II away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.45 PPG; Standard Liège II away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Standard Liège II won K. Lierse S.K. 1-4 Standard Liège II on 26 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Standard Liège II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
K. Lierse S.K.
0
Draws
1
Standard Liège II
Recent Meetings
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs Standard Liège II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Standard Liège II?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, K. Lierse S.K. have won 3, Standard Liège II have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and Standard Liège II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 March 2024: Standard Liège II 0-1 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between K. Lierse S.K. and Standard Liège II?
K. Lierse S.K. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — K. Lierse S.K. 68%, Standard Liège II 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for K. Lierse S.K. and 54% for Standard Liège II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Standard Liège II in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / Standard Liège II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs Standard Liège II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in K. Lierse S.K. and Standard Liège II matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent matches and 41% of Standard Liège II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are K. Lierse S.K. and Standard Liège II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 54% of Standard Liège II's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and Standard Liège II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent matches and 86% of Standard Liège II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Standard Liège II run riot with a 1-4 hammering of K. Lierse S.K..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liège II beat K. Lierse S.K. 1-4 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.83 xG and Standard Liège II 0.95 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Standard Liège II outscored their 0.95 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Standard Liège II attack 0.61 / defence 1.44, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 58% | Draw 23% | Standard Liège II 19%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Standard Liège II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 72%, Standard Liège II 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Standard Liège II's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, K. Lierse S.K. arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Standard Liège II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Standard Liège II (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.