SK Beveren 3-0 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs Francs Borains fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SK Beveren host Francs Borains at Freethielstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SK Beveren — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SK Beveren have posted 7W 1D 2L at Freethielstadion — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethielstadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Francs Borains stand at 3W 1D 5L from 9 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.11 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SK Beveren 1.20 PPG, Francs Borains 1.11 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Francs Borains in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (SK Beveren 33% | Francs Borains 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 44% | Francs Borains 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.39 xG and Francs Borains 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.933 / defence 1.118 | Francs Borains attack 0.758 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.329. Francs Borains bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing SK Beveren's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 SK Beveren games / 9 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 43% | Draw 27% | Francs Borains 30%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Francs Borains 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 60% | Francs Borains 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 43% | Draw 27% | Francs Borains 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG SK Beveren 1.39 / Francs Borains 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.933 / def 1.118 | Francs Borains attack 0.758 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Francs Borains xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Francs Borains kick off?
SK Beveren vs Francs Borains kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Francs Borains?
SK Beveren 3 - 0 Francs Borains.
Where is SK Beveren vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Francs Borains part of?
SK Beveren vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 43% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SK Beveren and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Francs Borains?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Beveren and Francs Borains in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-1D-5L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.56 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (0.93) and Francs Borains's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Francs Borains's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.76
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.51
1.13
Francs Borains xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.13 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 3D 4L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Francs Borains's form line: 3W 1D 5L from 9 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SK Beveren on 1.00 PPG, Francs Borains on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Francs Borains have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
SK Beveren are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.00 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Francs Borains away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.00 PPG; Francs Borains away: 0.75 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Francs Borains been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Francs Borains in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SK Beveren go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2024, when SK Beveren won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SK Beveren's record when hosting Francs Borains specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SK Beveren
1
Draws
1
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Francs Borains?
From 6 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 4, Francs Borains have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Francs Borains 0-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Francs Borains?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 50%, Francs Borains 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for SK Beveren and 75% for Francs Borains. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Francs Borains?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 50% of Francs Borains's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SK Beveren's matches and 75% of Francs Borains's.
Do SK Beveren and Francs Borains tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SK Beveren run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Francs Borains 3-0 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.39 xG and Francs Borains 1.13 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Francs Borains landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 0.93 / defence 1.12 against Francs Borains attack 0.76 / defence 1.27, drawn from 31/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 43% | Draw 27% | Francs Borains 30%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 44%, Francs Borains 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Francs Borains's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.00 PPG, Francs Borains 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.