Francs Borains 2-1 Standard Liège II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Francs Borains at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Francs Borains vs Standard Liège II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Robert Urbain plays host to Francs Borains versus Standard Liège II in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Francs Borains's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Robert Urbain, Francs Borains have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Robert Urbain. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Standard Liège II have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liège II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Standard Liège II have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Francs Borains have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Standard Liège II in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading
Francs Borains half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Standard Liège II half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Francs Borains 30% | Standard Liège II 40%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 50% | Standard Liège II 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.35 xG and Standard Liège II 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.798 / defence 1.042 | Standard Liège II attack 0.598 / defence 1.472. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.345. Francs Borains's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Standard Liège II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.472 — this is suppressing Francs Borains's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Francs Borains games / 31 Standard Liège II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 49% | Draw 28% | Standard Liège II 23%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Standard Liège II 4.35. Francs Borains hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Francs Borains at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Francs Borains if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 20% | Standard Liège II 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Standard Liège II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 49% | Draw 28% | Standard Liège II 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Francs Borains 1.35 / Standard Liège II 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.798 / def 1.042 | Standard Liège II attack 0.598 / def 1.472 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Standard Liège II xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs Standard Liège II kick off?
Francs Borains vs Standard Liège II kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs Standard Liège II?
Francs Borains 2 - 1 Standard Liège II.
Where is Francs Borains vs Standard Liège II being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Standard Liège II part of?
Francs Borains vs Standard Liège II is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Standard Liège II?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 49% chance of winning, Standard Liège II a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Standard Liège II?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Francs Borains and Standard Liège II will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs Standard Liège II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Standard Liège II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Francs Borains and Standard Liège II in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Standard Liège II (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Francs Borains's attack rating (0.80) and Standard Liège II's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Standard Liège II's attack (0.60x) against Francs Borains's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 10/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.58
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.19
0.84
Standard Liège II xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
6%
16.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Standard Liège II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Standard Liège II expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Francs Borains and 0.84 for Standard Liège II, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Standard Liège II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Francs Borains have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 1D 6L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Standard Liège II's form line: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games, 0.60 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Standard Liège II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Francs Borains are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Standard Liège II.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Francs Borains have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, Standard Liège II have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Standard Liège II's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Francs Borains come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Francs Borains are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Standard Liège II are on 0.60 scored and 2.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Francs Borains have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
Standard Liège II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and Standard Liège II in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Standard Liège II have gone 2W 0D 8L in their last 10 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Standard Liège II away?
Francs Borains's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.40 PPG; Standard Liège II away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Francs Borains or Standard Liège II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Francs Borains have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Standard Liège II in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Francs Borains
0
Draws
0
Standard Liège II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Standard Liège II?
From 2 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 2, Standard Liège II have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Standard Liège II last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when Standard Liège II 1-2 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and Standard Liège II?
Francs Borains have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Francs Borains see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Francs Borains) and 20% (Standard Liège II) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Francs Borains) and 60% (Standard Liège II).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Francs Borains have failed to score in 40% of games; Standard Liège II in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Standard Liège II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play Standard Liège II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 20% of Standard Liège II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs Standard Liège II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Francs Borains's recent games and 60% of Standard Liège II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and Standard Liège II tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Standard Liège II in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Francs Borains edge out Standard Liège II 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat Standard Liège II 2-1 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 11, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.35 xG and Standard Liège II 0.84 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.80 / defence 1.04 against Standard Liège II attack 0.60 / defence 1.47, drawn from 10/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 49% | Draw 28% | Standard Liège II 23%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 50%, Standard Liège II 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Standard Liège II's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Francs Borains arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Standard Liège II (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.