RAAL La Louvière 2-1 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates RAAL La Louvière at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this RAAL La Louvière vs K. Lierse S.K. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees K. Lierse S.K. travel to Stade Communal du Tivoli to take on RAAL La Louvière. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RAAL La Louvière stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for RAAL La Louvière, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Communal du Tivoli, RAAL La Louvière have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — RAAL La Louvière are significantly better at Stade Communal du Tivoli than their overall form suggests.
K. Lierse S.K. — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
K. Lierse S.K.'s away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RAAL La Louvière 1.50 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for RAAL La Louvière, 0 for K. Lierse S.K. and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with RAAL La Louvière winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
RAAL La Louvière in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
K. Lierse S.K. in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RAAL La Louvière 60% versus K. Lierse S.K. 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RAAL La Louvière 48% | K. Lierse S.K. 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RAAL La Louvière 1.60 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RAAL La Louvière attack 1.150 / defence 0.799 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.858 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.355. RAAL La Louvière's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 25 RAAL La Louvière games / 55 K. Lierse S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 53% | Draw 25% | K. Lierse S.K. 22%. Fair-value odds: RAAL La Louvière 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | K. Lierse S.K. 4.55. RAAL La Louvière hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RAAL La Louvière as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RAAL La Louvière offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: RAAL La Louvière 50% | K. Lierse S.K. 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RAAL La Louvière vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Communal du Tivoli • Kick-off: Friday 14 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 53% | Draw 25% | K. Lierse S.K. 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG RAAL La Louvière 1.60 / K. Lierse S.K. 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: RAAL La Louvière attack 1.150 / def 0.799 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.858 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: RAAL La Louvière (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
RAAL La Louvière xG
Expected Goals
0.93
K. Lierse S.K. xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RAAL La Louvière vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
RAAL La Louvière vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 March 2025 at Stade Communal du Tivoli.
What was the final score in RAAL La Louvière vs K. Lierse S.K.?
RAAL La Louvière 2 - 1 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is RAAL La Louvière vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Stade Communal du Tivoli.
What competition is RAAL La Louvière vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
RAAL La Louvière vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RAAL La Louvière vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives RAAL La Louvière a 53% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making RAAL La Louvière the favourite.
Will both teams score in RAAL La Louvière vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both RAAL La Louvière and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will RAAL La Louvière vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and K. Lierse S.K.?
Record (1 meetings): RAAL La Louvière 1W | Draws 0 | K. Lierse S.K. 0W.
What form are RAAL La Louvière and K. Lierse S.K. in?
RAAL La Louvière (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates RAAL La Louvière's attack at 1.15x the league average against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, K. Lierse S.K.'s attack versus RAAL La Louvière's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RAAL La Louvière Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.00
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
RAAL La Louvière xG
Total xG
2.53
0.93
K. Lierse S.K. xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
4%
22.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RAAL La Louvière vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are RAAL La Louvière and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for RAAL La Louvière and 0.93 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for RAAL La Louvière vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RAAL La Louvière come into this having played 25 games, going 14W 8D 3L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for RAAL La Louvière is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, K. Lierse S.K. sit at 1.36 PPG from 25 outings (9W 7D 9L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RAAL La Louvière carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of K. Lierse S.K. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
RAAL La Louvière's home form reads 7W 4D 1L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, K. Lierse S.K. have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RAAL La Louvière come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RAAL La Louvière are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.40 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RAAL La Louvière have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: RAAL La Louvière have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RAAL La Louvière and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
RAAL La Louvière have gone 14W 8D 3L in their last 25 games (2.00 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 9W 7D 9L in their last 25 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RAAL La Louvière at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
RAAL La Louvière's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RAAL La Louvière at home: 2.08 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 1.00 PPG.
Have RAAL La Louvière or K. Lierse S.K. been keeping clean sheets recently?
RAAL La Louvière have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, K. Lierse S.K. in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RAAL La Louvière and K. Lierse S.K. runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
RAAL La Louvière
0
Draws
0
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 2 meetings on record, RAAL La Louvière have won 2, K. Lierse S.K. have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RAAL La Louvière and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when RAAL La Louvière 2-1 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between RAAL La Louvière and K. Lierse S.K.?
RAAL La Louvière have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RAAL La Louvière 50%, K. Lierse S.K. 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (RAAL La Louvière) and 42% (K. Lierse S.K.).
On the defensive side: RAAL La Louvière keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; K. Lierse S.K. in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RAAL La Louvière home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RAAL La Louvière play K. Lierse S.K.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of RAAL La Louvière's recent matches and 50% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RAAL La Louvière vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of RAAL La Louvière's recent games and 42% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RAAL La Louvière and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
RAAL La Louvière have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RAAL La Louvière edge out K. Lierse S.K. 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RAAL La Louvière beat K. Lierse S.K. 2-1 at Stade Communal du Tivoli, Regular Season - 26, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RAAL La Louvière 1.60 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 0.93 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RAAL La Louvière attack 1.15 / defence 0.80 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RAAL La Louvière 53% | Draw 25% | K. Lierse S.K. 22%, with RAAL La Louvière to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RAAL La Louvière 48%, K. Lierse S.K. 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RAAL La Louvière arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.36. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.