K. Lierse S.K. 1-0 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates K. Lierse S.K. at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lommel United make the trip to AsterX Group-f Arena to face K. Lierse S.K. in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 December 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
K. Lierse S.K. have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record at AsterX Group-f Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — K. Lierse S.K. are significantly better at AsterX Group-f Arena than their overall form suggests.
Lommel United's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lommel United have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for K. Lierse S.K., 1.10 for Lommel United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — K. Lierse S.K. register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Lommel United in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — K. Lierse S.K. lead 3W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
K. Lierse S.K. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Lommel United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — K. Lierse S.K. 64% and Lommel United 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (K. Lierse S.K. 71% | Lommel United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 2.20 xG and Lommel United 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.219 / defence 1.018 | Lommel United attack 1.107 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.410. Lommel United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing K. Lierse S.K.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 K. Lierse S.K. games / 45 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 52% | Draw 20% | Lommel United 28%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 1.92 | Draw 5.00 | Lommel United 3.57. K. Lierse S.K. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, K. Lierse S.K. are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: K. Lierse S.K. 70% | Lommel United 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: AsterX Group-f Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Dec 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 52% | Draw 20% | Lommel United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 71% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 2.20 / Lommel United 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.219 / def 1.018 | Lommel United attack 1.107 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Lommel United xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 22 December 2024 at AsterX Group-f Arena.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United?
K. Lierse S.K. 1 - 0 Lommel United.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at AsterX Group-f Arena.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 52% chance of winning, Lommel United a 28% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Lommel United?
Record (7 meetings): K. Lierse S.K. 3W | Draws 1 | Lommel United 3W.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Lommel United in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Lommel United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 1.22x the league average against Lommel United's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lommel United's attack (1.11x) against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
52%
1.94
20%
4.89
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
3.79
1.59
Lommel United xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.42
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
11%
9.01
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
3%
32.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.59 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, K. Lierse S.K. have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 15W 9D 21L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United's form line: 17W 14D 14L from 45 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for K. Lierse S.K. against 1.44 for Lommel United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 1.48 PPG from 23 outings (10W 4D 9L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 9W 6D 8L from 23 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.58 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Lommel United in 67%.
Last 45 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Lommel United in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 15W 9D 21L in their last 45 games (1.20 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 17W 14D 14L in their last 45 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or Lommel United away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.48 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 3-0 on 17 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lommel United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
K. Lierse S.K.
2
Draws
4
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Lommel United?
From 10 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 4, Lommel United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when Lommel United 4-3 K. Lierse S.K..
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for K. Lierse S.K., 74% for Lommel United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for K. Lierse S.K. and 78% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of K. Lierse S.K.'s games and 74% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 78% of Lommel United's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and Lommel United tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as K. Lierse S.K. edge out Lommel United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. beat Lommel United 1-0 at AsterX Group-f Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 2.20 xG and Lommel United 1.59 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. K. Lierse S.K. fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lommel United landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.22 / defence 1.02 against Lommel United attack 1.11 / defence 1.27, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 52% | Draw 20% | Lommel United 28%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 71%, Lommel United 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Lommel United's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.20 PPG, Lommel United 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the K. Lierse S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.