Lommel United 1-2 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zulte Waregem at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host Zulte Waregem at Soeverein Stadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lommel United — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lommel United have posted 3W 5D 2L at Soeverein Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Zulte Waregem have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Zulte Waregem — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Lommel United, 0 for Zulte Waregem and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Lommel United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lommel United in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lommel United 65% and Zulte Waregem 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 61% | Zulte Waregem 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.24 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.825 / defence 0.918 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.193 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.409. Data: 44 Lommel United games / 44 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 31% | Draw 25% | Zulte Waregem 44%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Zulte Waregem 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Lommel United dominate the H2H record, yet Zulte Waregem are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Zulte Waregem are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 70% | Zulte Waregem 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 31% | Draw 25% | Zulte Waregem 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Lommel United 1.24 / Zulte Waregem 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.825 / def 0.918 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.193 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Zulte Waregem xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Lommel United 1 - 2 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 31% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lommel United and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem?
Record (4 meetings): Lommel United 2W | Draws 2 | Zulte Waregem 0W.
What form are Lommel United and Zulte Waregem in?
Lommel United (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lommel United's attack rating (0.82) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
31%
3.26
25%
4.00
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.79
1.54
Zulte Waregem xG
3.26
31%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
7%
15.26
13%
7.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.54 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lommel United's recent record stands at 18W 14D 14L from 46 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 25W 9D 12L across 46 games — 1.83 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lommel United on 1.48 PPG, Zulte Waregem on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lommel United have managed 9W 8D 5L from 22 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 15W 3D 4L across 22 trips, a 2.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lommel United are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.83 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Zulte Waregem in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 18W 14D 14L in their last 46 games (1.48 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 25W 9D 12L in their last 46 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.59 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 2.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Lommel United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lommel United's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lommel United
2
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 3, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 54%, Zulte Waregem 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Lommel United) and 68% (Zulte Waregem).
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Lommel United's games and 64% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Lommel United's recent games and 68% of Zulte Waregem's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zulte Waregem edge out Lommel United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Lommel United 1-2 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.24 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.54 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.19 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 31% | Draw 25% | Zulte Waregem 44%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 61%, Zulte Waregem 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.48 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.