AS Eupen 0-4 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Patro Eisden at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Eupen vs Patro Eisden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Patro Eisden travel to Kehrwegstadion to take on AS Eupen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024, 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Eupen stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen's home record at Kehrwegstadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Patro Eisden have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Patro Eisden have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Patro Eisden's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of AS Eupen's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
AS Eupen in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Patro Eisden in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 50% versus Patro Eisden 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 52% | Patro Eisden 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 0.94 xG and Patro Eisden 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.855 / defence 1.254 | Patro Eisden attack 0.906 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.333. Patro Eisden's defence strength of 0.759 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 AS Eupen games / 40 Patro Eisden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 23% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 51%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Patro Eisden 1.96. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 50% | Patro Eisden 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Kehrwegstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 23% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG AS Eupen 0.94 / Patro Eisden 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.855 / def 1.254 | Patro Eisden attack 0.906 / def 0.759 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Patro Eisden xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Patro Eisden kick off?
AS Eupen vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Kehrwegstadion.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Patro Eisden?
AS Eupen 0 - 4 Patro Eisden.
Where is AS Eupen vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Kehrwegstadion.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Patro Eisden part of?
AS Eupen vs Patro Eisden is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 23% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both AS Eupen and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Patro Eisden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Eupen and Patro Eisden in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about AS Eupen vs Patro Eisden?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Eupen's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Patro Eisden's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Patro Eisden's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
23%
4.26
26%
3.86
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.46
1.51
Patro Eisden xG
4.26
23%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
5%
19.39
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 13.0 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.51 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Eupen's recent record stands at 9W 6D 27L from 42 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Patro Eisden, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 10L across 42 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Patro Eisden by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AS Eupen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AS Eupen have managed 6W 3D 11L from 20 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Patro Eisden's away record stands at 7W 9D 4L across 20 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Eupen are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.45 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Patro Eisden in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 9W 6D 27L in their last 42 games (0.79 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 18W 14D 10L in their last 42 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Patro Eisden away?
Patro Eisden's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 1.05 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.50 PPG.
Have AS Eupen or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Eupen have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 18 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Patro Eisden won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Eupen's record when hosting Patro Eisden specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
AS Eupen
1
Draws
2
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Patro Eisden?
From 4 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 1, Patro Eisden have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 18 December 2025, when Patro Eisden 0-1 AS Eupen.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Patro Eisden?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Patro Eisden see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 60%, Patro Eisden 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AS Eupen) and 35% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden in 55%; Patro Eisden in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Patro Eisden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 35% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Eupen vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AS Eupen's recent games and 35% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Eupen and Patro Eisden tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Patro Eisden in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Patro Eisden run riot with a 0-4 hammering of AS Eupen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat AS Eupen 0-4 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 0.94 xG and Patro Eisden 1.51 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. AS Eupen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Patro Eisden outscored their 1.51 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.85 / defence 1.25 against Patro Eisden attack 0.91 / defence 0.76, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 23% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 51%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 52%, Patro Eisden 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.