WSG Wattens 0-2 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Red Bull Salzburg (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as WSG Wattens face Red Bull Salzburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Red Bull Salzburg travel to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to take on WSG Wattens. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, WSG Wattens stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Red Bull Salzburg — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Red Bull Salzburg's 2.00 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of WSG Wattens's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. WSG Wattens register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Red Bull Salzburg have the better historical record — 5 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for WSG Wattens.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 0–3 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
WSG Wattens in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 57% versus Red Bull Salzburg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 54% | Red Bull Salzburg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.09 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 2.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.936 / defence 1.409 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.443 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.389. Red Bull Salzburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.443 — the away xG of 2.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 WSG Wattens games / 34 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 11% | Draw 16% | Red Bull Salzburg 72%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 9.09 | Draw 6.25 | Red Bull Salzburg 1.39. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.09 / 2.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 70% | Red Bull Salzburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 11% | Draw 16% | Red Bull Salzburg 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 63% | xG WSG Wattens 1.09 / Red Bull Salzburg 2.82 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.936 / def 1.409 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.443 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
2.82
Red Bull Salzburg xG
63%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
WSG Wattens 0 - 2 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 11% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 72% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (5 meetings): WSG Wattens 0W | Draws 0 | Red Bull Salzburg 5W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 2.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-3 (8.2%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
11%
8.95
16%
6.10
72%
1.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
8.2%
Away win
0 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
3.92
2.82
Red Bull Salzburg xG
8.95
11%
Home win
6.10
16%
Draw
1.38
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
6%
16.83
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
1%
150.65
24%
4.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 3.0 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 3.3 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 2.82 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
WSG Wattens come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 10D 23L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 2.34 PPG from 44 outings (31W 10D 3L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.36 PPG clear of WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
WSG Wattens's home form reads 4W 7D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 2.62 points per game from 21 outings (17W 4D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.14 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 11W 10D 23L in their last 44 games (0.98 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 31W 10D 3L in their last 44 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.90 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.62 PPG.
Have WSG Wattens or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
WSG Wattens have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Red Bull Salzburg 2-3 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 62%, Red Bull Salzburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (WSG Wattens) and 62% (Red Bull Salzburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 48%; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of WSG Wattens's games and 52% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of WSG Wattens's matches and 62% of Red Bull Salzburg's.
Do WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat WSG Wattens 0-2 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.09 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 2.82 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Red Bull Salzburg landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.94 / defence 1.41 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.44 / defence 0.97, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 11% | Draw 16% | Red Bull Salzburg 72%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 54%, Red Bull Salzburg 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.